Analysis | Greater Bay megalopolis triggers both hopes and fears

The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge plays a key role in the regional integration plan

The establishment of the Greater Bay Area and the announced goal of achieving simplified living and travelling around the nine cities and regions that compose of the southern China area, including Macau and Hong Kong, has been triggering several opinions and pre-announced measures.

Although the plans are still a well-kept secret, the governments of the Special Administrative Regions (SARs) have rushed to highlight the many advantages that the creation of this “megalopolis” will bring. This is especially in regard to opportunities for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and younger generations.
The creation of such interconnections between the cities and regions that make up the area would create a megacity equivalent to the fifth-largest economy in the world by 2030, with a forecasted population of nearly 70 million people.

In Macau, a number of lawmakers have questioned the Chief Executive (CE), asking for more details regarding the plans of the Greater Bay Area, namely the field or fields in which the region could benefit from the policy and the impact that could be expected from regional integration. This follows on from several previous occasions,  namely during the CE’s last visit to the Legislative Assembly in April this year.

Lawmaker Kou Hoi In was one of those to address the topic in a direct manner, questioning the CE on the opportunities and missions created by the Greater Bay Area and how Macau will adjust and integrate such a project in order to “catch that fast train.” Several others noted the fact that there are no publicized plans regarding how the new framework could affect Macau’s competitiveness.

A reply from the CE indicates that there is a need to await the definite plans by the central government.  In the words of Chui Sai On, that will happen soon.
Summarizing the benefits, the CE said “this will ease the lives of all the people living in this area,” noting that there are already several test-projects being held in different areas. “We need to be prepared to embrace this plan and to have an open mind [to receive it],” he said.

The same seems to be happening in the neighboring region of Hong Kong, where some officials and lawmakers have been conveying words of encouragement, namely to young people, to consider living across the mainland China border in order to “escape the territory’s sky-high housing prices” and to “find more job opportunities.”

As Reuters reported recently, such efforts are not an easy sell, but pro-China business leaders claim that it is all a matter of time until such “resistance” falls and people accept the idea.

Even if the idea of being able to afford a house and having a job that supports a better lifestyle can attract many, other Millennials may miss the freedom granted under the “one country, two systems” rule enjoyed by both SARs. This especially concerns access to information via the media and Internet resources, which are free in Hong Kong and Macau, contrary to the mainland where there is vigorous enforcement of censorship.

According to Reuters, former student leader, young activist and politician Nathan Law said, “many young people don’t reject the idea of visiting the mainland for fun. But if you want them to live there, you have your head in the clouds,” he said, adding, “you can’t even use WhatsApp or watch YouTube videos. You are isolated from the world.”

Such an opinion is shared by most, if not all, “hardline activists” who claim that Hong Kong’s young people will simply never buy into the idea of living across the border. Several studies show that the overwhelming majority of the region’s youth identify themselves as Hong Kong people, rather than Chinese people.

In one survey conducted by pro-establishment organization Hong Kong Youth Power Association published last May, almost 60 percent of the 878 young people surveyed said they would not consider working or living in the “Greater Bay Area,” citing reasons such as the “distance from home,” higher taxation of income (on the mainland when compared to Hong Kong) and being unfamiliar and uncomfortable with Chinese government policies and enforcement rules.
On the other hand, Beijing has made it clear on several occasions that economic integration is key and an important part of the policies is to reinforce the integration of the Hong Kong SAR, which relies on the support from an important share of the business community.

Jonathan Choi, Chairman of the Chinese General Chamber of Commerce of Hong Kong and member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (the top advisory body to China’s parliament), was quoted by the Hong Kong Economic Times just last month as saying “we will no longer be Hong Kong people, but Greater Bay Area people…We should therefore focus on integration rather than on the interests of Hong Kong.”
The influx and diffusion of people in the recent years has resulted in Hong Kong-born people being bred in the mainland. Many of these people belong to families with business interests, and are likely to be more familiar with the mainland and would probably contribute to the reduction of support for pro-democracy movements in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong’s Chief Secretary for Administration Matthew Cheung also addressed the topic of distance, as quoted in a blog titled “Debunk the myths over Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area,” saying, “that distance, I believe, will no longer be a problem once they [people of HK] have learned about the latest progress of our growing transport infrastructure links with the Bay Area.” This would facilitate the migration, which, according to the Hong Kong government and figures cited by Reuters, is already occurring. “At least 500,000 Hong Kong people resided in the mainland last year, up from 155,000 in 2009 and just 62,000 in 2003, according to official data,” he stated,

The same source also cites property agents in southern China, saying that the demand for properties in cities such as Zhuhai and Zhongshan have increased as much as 40 percent, but noted that most of the property seekers were not young people, but “sophisticated investors” trying to anticipate demand from the public and hoping to profit on the sale.

According to one of these investors who was also quoted by Reuters, “In Zhongshan, homes can be bought for RMB1,400 per square foot, while those in Zhuhai go for around RMB4,000 per square foot, a steep discount [compared] to roughly HKD15,000 per square foot for an apartment in Hong Kong” or the average of around HKD9,400 in Macau, reported by the government at the end of 2017.

Nevertheless, the property investor and expert told Reuters, “Bay Area purchases so far have been for investment purposes or holiday homes, rather than as primary residences.” RM