Can the world quit coal?

Stacy D. VanDeveer, UMass Boston

As world leaders, researchers, activists and lobbyists gather in Brazil for the 30th annual United Nations climate conference, frustration is high that global action still lags behind what science demands. Greenhouse gas emissions continue rising, temperatures keep setting records and political headwinds are strengthening. The U.S. sent no official delegation and is rolling back environmental rules while pushing other nations to use more fossil fuels.

Coal use is also rising, especially in India and China, and debates over justice and economic futures loom large for coal-dependent communities. Yet beneath the grim headlines sits a more complicated picture, including some promising developments.

Coal is the dirtiest fossil fuel and a major driver of climate change and air pollution, which makes it an obvious target for deep emissions cuts. In the U.S., a swift decline in coal use has been the main reason national emissions fell in recent years, as natural gas and renewable energy became cheaper.

Nearly a third of all countries have pledged to phase out unabated coal power, including coal users such as Germany, Spain, Malaysia and the Czech Republic. More than 60 countries have joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance, with phase-out deadlines between 2025 and 2040. Several governments in Europe and Latin America now lead coal phase-outs, and EU emissions continue to fall.

Globally, though, the picture is mixed. The rapid growth of renewable energy, storage, electric vehicles and efficiency improvements provides hope that global emissions may be nearing a peak. In 2024, more than 90% of new electricity capacity installed worldwide came from clean energy sources. But demand is rising so fast that renewables often supplement rather than replace fossil fuels, meaning older coal plants frequently stay online and new ones appear.

China burns more coal than the rest of the world combined and continues to build new plants. Yet it is also the powerhouse behind global growth in wind and solar, the world’s dominant manufacturer of clean energy technologies and an exporter shaping renewable markets worldwide. Its economic interests increasingly align with scaling up clean energy.

Climate policies face backlash in the U.S. and parts of Europe, but many governments elsewhere are still advancing cleaner energy strategies. Even so, phasing out coal is not happening at the speed required. Meeting the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius — ideally under 1.5 C — requires rapid reductions in nearly all fossil fuel use. The world is not on track.

Another challenge is ensuring a just transition for coal-dependent regions. Countries fear repeating the painful collapse of British mining communities in the 1980s, when rapid closures caused long-term economic and social decline. As more nations phase out coal, examples are emerging of how to support workers and regions: careful planning, updated grids, reliable financing, worker retraining, small-business development, and public funding for pensions and local infrastructure can help communities shift toward new economic paths.

Renewable energy technologies are now affordable and far cleaner for those living near power facilities than coal mining and burning. The transition still involves obstacles, but the way forward is clear: removing political and regulatory barriers, speeding the construction of renewable power and transmission lines, boosting equipment production and helping low-income countries access cheaper financing.

So can the world quit coal? Yes — it can. Or, as Brazilians say, “Sim, nós podemos.”

[Abridged]