Economy | Consumer confidence on the rise but caution remains

The Institute of Sustainable Development of the Macau University of Science and Technology has published its consumer confidence index for the territory for the first quarter of 2018.

The overall consumer confidence index for the first quarter of 2018 was 89.92 in Macau, a 2.04 percent improvement from the previous quarter but still indicating that Macau residents are slightly pessimistic in their economic outlook, particularly in regard to consumer prices and living standards.

The consumer confidence index comprehensively reflects and quantifies consumer’s opinions on the strength of the current economic situation. It includes consumers’ subjective feelings about the current and next quarter’s macroeconomic outlook, employment, prices, living standards, purchase of residential properties and investment in stocks.

In order to obtain its data, MUST’s Institute of Sustainable Development surveyed over 1,000 Macau residents aged 18 or above and asked their opinions on the various sub-indexes included in the consumer confidence index.

The index score ranges from 0 to 200, where a score of less than 100 suggests a lack of confidence and a score over 100 implies a degree of confidence.

Analyzed by sub-index, confidence in local economy (111.22) rose by 0.62 percent on a quarterly basis, similar to that of employment (111.04), which increased by 1.5 percent.

Confidence in consumer prices (72.66) increased by 0.58 percent, but remained far below the 100 mark, as did the sub-indexes for housing purchases (60.21) and stock investment (86.40), which increased by 10.94 percent and 5.45 percent respectively. Living standards was the only sub-index to register a drop, falling 2.37 percent to 97.96.

The institution concluded in its report that “in sum, the overall confidence of consumers in Macau increased during the quarter, consumer confidence in the Macau economy continued to rise and maintained a ‘confident’ position above 100.”

“Confidence in the employment situation was more optimistic and in consumer prices was slightly lower. The standard of living is basically stable, the confidence of the purchase of housing rebounded [from a] low […and] in the short run, the high growth rate of gambling industries enhances consumer confidence.”

Outside Macau, the mainland’s consumer confidence index for the first quarter of 2018 was 105.0, down 0.1 percent from 105.1 in the previous quarter. In the same period, the index for Hong Kong stood unchanged at 86.8, while in Taiwan it was 88.8, up 2.5 percent from 86.7. DB