The next steps in the deal to pause the war in Gaza

Lee Keath, MDT/AP

A breakthrough deal pausing the war in Gaza has been reached. But will it lead, as U.S. President Donald Trump proclaimed, to “a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace”?

It took pressure on Israel and Hamas from the United States, Arab countries, and Turkey, all insisting it was time to end a two-year war that devastated Gaza, killed tens of thousands of Palestinians, and isolated Israel internationally.

The deal’s first phase will free the remaining Israeli hostages within days in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinians held by Israel. Yet it leaves questions about what comes next.

Israel wants Hamas to disarm. Hamas wants a full Israeli withdrawal and guarantees the war will not restart. A postwar government must also replace Hamas before reconstruction can begin for Gaza’s more than 2 million people.

With little trust between the sides, progress depends on pressure from the guarantors — the U.S., Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey. Any setback could unravel the process and prompt Israel to resume its campaign.

Once Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Cabinet and parliament ratify the deal — expected Thursday — a partial pullback of Israeli forces will begin, according to Arab and Hamas officials. The extent of the withdrawal is unclear, but Hamas says troops will leave populated areas.

Hamas will release 20 living hostages within days, likely Monday, while Israel frees hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. It will also hand over the remains of about 28 hostages believed to have died. Aid trucks will start entering Gaza as numbers increase.

Hamas had long insisted it would not free its last hostages until Israeli troops left Gaza completely. After agreeing to release them first, it says it relies on Trump’s guarantees that a full withdrawal will follow. How long that will take — weeks or months — is uncertain.

Israel has spoken of keeping forces in a buffer zone inside Gaza and along the Philadelphi Corridor on the border with Egypt. It is unlikely to leave those areas unless Hamas disarms and a new authority acceptable to Israel takes control.

Trump’s 20-point plan calls for an Arab-led international force to deploy in Gaza alongside Palestinian police trained by Egypt and Jordan, with Israeli troops leaving as they move in. Whether that plan or another will take hold remains unclear.

For Israel, disarmament is key. Netanyahu says the campaign will not end until Hamas’ military capabilities, including its tunnel network, are dismantled. Arab officials say Hamas could agree to “decommission” offensive weapons, handing them to a joint Palestinian-Egyptian committee.

Israel wants Gaza free of Hamas but rejects giving the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority control or any arrangement leading to a Palestinian state. Hamas says it is ready to step aside for a government of Palestinian technocrats, though what replaces it is uncertain.

Under Trump’s plan, an international “Council of Peace” or “Board of Peace” would oversee Gaza, directing reconstruction and supervising local technocrats. The proposal names former British Prime Minister Tony Blair to lead it. Hamas has not agreed, saying Gaza’s future must be decided by Palestinians.

Israelis welcomed the deal after talks in Sharm el-Sheikh, seeing the release of hostages as long-awaited relief. Palestinians hoped bombing would stop and aid would enter, but many doubt the pause will last or that Gaza — much of it in ruins — will ever be rebuilt.

If negotiations stall, Gaza could slip into limbo, with Israeli troops still inside and Hamas still active. Reconstruction would halt, leaving Gazans displaced and uncertain about the promised peace.

[Abridged]