Analysts: September GGR likely to increase 13% y-o-y

Following the release of August’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) figures, industry analysts are forecasting sustained double-digit growth in the coming quarters, signaling a classic upward cycle of recovery.

August marked Macau’s strongest monthly performance since January 2020, just before the Covid-19 pandemic shuttered Macau’s casinos.

The Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported that August GGR reached MOP22.2 billion (USD2.76 billion), slightly surpassing July’s tally of MOP22.13 billion (USD2.75 billion) by 0.14%.

In response, Deutsche Bank Securities noted the strong performance led to its bullish outlook for September, forecasting GGR of US$2.45 billion, up 13.6% year on year and exceeding the broader investment consensus of 10% growth.

Deutsche Bank analyst Steve Pizzella noted that this projection is conservative compared to historical trends.

Between 2013 and 2019, September typically saw a 5.5% month-over-month decline in average daily win compared to August. Pizzella said that if this pattern holds in 2025, September’s gross gaming revenue would increase by approximately 17.5% year on year, which would translate to around MOP 20.3 billion.

Meanwhile, Vitaly Umansky, senior analyst at Seaport Research Partners, expects September GGR to grow 13% year on year but drop 12% month on month. He cautioned that potential typhoons, like those that hit Macau last year in September, could disrupt forecasts.

“Last year, September was negatively impacted by two major typhoons, somewhat offset by a high VIP hold,” said Umansky.

In their Monday note, Seaport highlighted a mixed recovery across market segments: while the premium segment has been strong since early 2023, the base mass segment – particularly overnight mass gamblers – remains weak, although some mid-tier improvements have emerged over the summer.

Year-to-date figures show overall GGR at 82% of the same period in 2019, with mass market revenue approximately 19% above 2019 levels.

VIP revenue, however, remains subdued at about 21% of pre-pandemic levels, Seaport explained.

Within the mass market, Umansky clarified that the premium segment is performing about 50% better than in 2019, while the base mass segment trails about 10% below 2019 levels.

Also on Monday, JP Morgan noted that August posted the strongest monthly GGR since the pandemic and marked the “third consecutive month of double-digit year-on-year growth this year,” indicating that Macau is experiencing a classic “upcycle.”

The investment bank credits this “upcycle” growth as being driven by wealth effects from mainland China and Hong Kong, with the institution recognizing Hong Kong as benefiting from “abundant liquidity.”

Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian noted that non-gaming activities have also contributed to increased foot traffic at gaming venues across the city, supported by a “strong lineup of entertainment events” and “strong visitation growth.”

“We expect strong momentum to continue for some time,” the investment bank said.