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Chunyun: GBA at the epicenter of the world’s largest human migration

February 12, 2026

Passengers at the Guangzhou South Railway Station in Guangdong province [Photo: China Daily]

China’s Spring Festival travel season – the annual 40-day migration known as Chunyun 春运 – is expected to generate a record 9.5 billion inter-regional trips this year, according to the Ministry of Transport. That figure, staggering by any global standard, confirms what demographers have long argued: no movement of people in human history matches the scale, intensity, and speed of China’s Lunar New Year migration.

Within this nationwide surge, the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area stands out as one of the most concentrated mobility corridors on the planet.

Key Takeaways

The GBA alone moves more people in 40 days than the United States does during its entire Thanksgiving travel period. moves more people in 40 days than the United States does during its entire Thanksgiving travel period.

At peak days, the Greater Bay Area processes population flows equivalent to the entire population of a mid-sized European country – in less than 72 hours.

Nearly 1 in 12 Spring Festival trips occurs within or through the Greater Bay Area.

Official provincial transport data suggest that Guangdong alone accounts for approximately 600 to 650 million passenger trips during the Spring Festival period. That represents roughly 6% to 7% of national mobility concentrated within a single province. But the story becomes more compelling when the flows within and across the GBA are examined in detail.

Guangzhou remains the region’s primary redistribution hub. The city’s South Railway Station – among the largest high-speed rail nodes in Asia – regularly handles more than 250,000 passengers per day at peak. Over the full Spring Festival period, rail movements linked to Guangzhou are estimated at between 45 and 55 million passengers.

Baiyun International Airport adds another 10 to 12 million journeys, while expressway vehicle flows in the metropolitan area likely exceed 70 million. In total, mobility associated with Guangzhou alone may surpass 130 million trips.

Shenzhen presents a slightly different pattern. As one of China’s largest migrant worker cities, it experiences pronounced outbound waves before the holiday and powerful return flows afterward. Rail volumes through Shenzhen North and Futian stations are estimated at 40 to 50 million during the period, complemented by 8 to 10 million air passengers at Bao’an International Airport. Combined with highway traffic, total Shenzhen-linked journeys may reach 120 million.

Cross-boundary flows further intensify the picture. Hong Kong’s Immigration Department reports that peak daily crossings across all checkpoints can exceed 800,000 during the holiday window. Over the full period, cross-boundary movements between Hong Kong and the mainland are estimated at 20 to 25 million trips. West Kowloon’s high-speed rail terminal has become a significant conduit for these flows, reflecting the deepening transport integration of the region.

Macau, though far smaller in population, registers extraordinary intensity relative to its size. Peak daily crossings at Gongbei Port alone frequently surpass 350,000 during Spring Festival. Across all checkpoints, the territory may see between 8 and 10 million movements during the 40-day window – a remarkable figure for a city of fewer than 700,000 residents.

Aggregated conservatively, GBA-linked mobility during the Spring Festival likely exceeds 700 to 800 million journeys. In other words, nearly one in every twelve trips nationwide occurs within or through this single megaregion.

Structurally, several trends are reshaping these flows.

First, high-speed rail continues to replace long-distance bus travel, compressing journey times and increasing frequency. The densification of the Pearl River Delta rail network is reducing friction between cities and redistributing pressure across nodes.

Second, new infrastructure – including the Shenzhen–Zhongshan link and expanded intercity corridors – is gradually shifting flows toward the western Pearl River Delta. This may ease pressure on traditional bottlenecks such as Guangzhou South and Shenzhen North.

Third, Hong Kong and Macau are increasingly embedded in domestic travel circuits rather than operating purely as international gateways. The normalization of cross-boundary mobility after pandemic-era disruptions has accelerated this reintegration.

What emerges is a portrait not simply of mass migration, but of advanced regional integration. The Greater Bay Area now functions as a synchronized mobility ecosystem – rail, road, air, and cross-border channels operating at near continuous saturation during peak holiday days.