Gaming | Bernstein projects weaker revenue in first week of Feb

Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) contracted in the first week of February compared with the same period in January 2021, driven by the continual pressure stirred up by recent Covid-19 outbreaks in China, according to a statement recently published by Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd, as cited in GGRAsia.
The investment research and institutional asset management company forecasts MOP1.5 billion in GGR, equivalent to USD187.8 million, during the first week of February.
This translates to a month-to-date average daily rate (ADR) of MOP215 million, down 17% and 76% from ADR MOP259 million and ADR MOP906 million in the same period in January 2021 and February 2019, respectively.
The brokerage also attributed the month-to-month GGR downtrend to the “typical slowdown” in the week before the Spring Festival.
The travel advisory issued by the municipal’s government in China impelling people to stay put during Lunar New Year has had a dispiriting effect on reported travel intention among mainland travelers, further impeding GGR performance in the first week of February.
Analysts at Bernstein is expecting “reduced visitation into Macau” for at least the next few weeks, as some mainland travelers have postponed their original trips during the holiday period to after the holiday.
Despite the brokerage’s forecast, some chiefs of Macau’s casino conglomerates have still been sanguine about business during Chinese New Year (CNY).
President of Sands China Ltd Wilfred Wong was among them. He stated in the opening ceremony of The Londoner Macao on February 8 that the group has “high expectations” regarding tourist arrivals in CNY.
“Despite the travel entreaty, we believe there will still be a lot of tourists [visiting Macau] from Guangdong Province. But still, tourist arrivals will come down to how many Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) permits will be approved for the holiday,” he added.
Echoing Bernstein’s projection, Wong is anticipating a slight delay in the peaks of hotel room bookings to periods beyond CNY. Prior to the pandemic, spikes in occupancy had habitually fallen within the first three days of the holiday.
Wynn Macau Ltd president and executive director Ian Coughlan also delivered his view about CNY on an earnings call on February 4, saying that the recent fall in Covid-19 case numbers in China, following some spikes in late-December and January, is “very positive” for the city’s tourism sector.
Coughlan said he is eyeing an occupancy rate on par with that of Golden Week in October last year.
“But certainly, [Covid-19 outbreaks in China have] affected bookings throughout town. So we’re probably looking at more like an October Golden Week situation than the Christmas and western New Year period,” he said.
He also believes the impact of recent outbreaks in China will be temporary, considering that the virus has been contained and vaccination has commenced.
Wong stated earlier that Macau’s vaccination rollout will help to increase travel confidence and propel the city’s tourism industry forward.
In Macau, Chief Executive Ho Iat Seng and other key authorities received their first dose of the inactivated vaccine, developed by China’s state-owned pharmaceutical company Sinopharm Group, yesterday on February 9. The vaccination rollout for prioritized groups started yesterday. Vaccination for the general public will start on February 22.