Analysis
Over the course of one’s life – shaped by education, one’s temporal environment, upbringing, community and situational norms – one has a sense of how the world works. We all hold a multitude of working theories that direct our actions with a comforting certitude of likely outcomes. It is this degree of assurance and certainty that allows us to invest resources – effort, time, money, the costs of not doing something else – without having to reassess the risk of doing so at every single decision point.
So, we send our children to good schools knowing they are more likely to develop skills, knowledge and a set of values and ideologies that will serve them well in the job market and over the course of their lives. We are reassured by the presence of police in our neighbourhoods because they are there to enforce the rule of law for community safety and our protection. We take out multi-decade loans for homes and residential investments because the cost of rentals and return from capital both tend to rise. We readily put money into pension funds and stocks as a couple of generations before have experienced wealth generated in the medium to long term on the back of open trade and rising markets. We like to work in industries and build businesses that are supported by local governments and are enabled by global institutions.
So, when the schema upon which we base our actions and beliefs are shaken by destabilising forces, we can get lost and distracted, very distracted.
Navigating global disruption
For the last four months, and particularly the last one, U.S.-provoked shifts in the global world order in international trade and material supply, in geopolitical security and in global aid, and the undermining of a certain values-based modality have taken me down dark paths of history, ideological explanations and hours upon hours of news items and legal commentary in attempt to grasp what is happening, what the world will look like and how to respond.
At the individual level, these changes impact investment decisions, travel plans, career, advice to younger generations, preparations for retirement, housing decisions, daily purchases and what to and what not to post on social media, and even which media to use and trust. Our world view has been shaken.
Sudden geopolitical, economic and social forces such as these have existential impacts upon businesses: they also present vast opportunities for those agile enough to pivot – something GBA enterprises have shown to be well versed in.
Although the dire consequences of a horror tariff regime between China and the U.S. have been diverted for a while with this week’s agreement on the cancellation of the worst retaliatory tariffs and suspension of the “Liberation Day” imposts for 90 days, uncertainty remains.
The role of chambersin the GBA
The GBA hub of business activity is not an economy of stand-alone enterprises but an ecology of economic activity supported by government initiatives, supply-chain cooperation and knowledge-sharing and value co-creation by institutions, which include chambers of commerce. These chambers and alliances of chambers in the GBA encourage conversations, collaborative research and investigation.
The sharing within and across industries facilitate lobbying and corporate decisions which help mitigate the worst of threats, and also encourage awareness of new opportunities that might otherwise have gone undiscovered.
Established in 2017, the Guangdong-HK-Macao Bay Area Entrepreneurs Alliance built a consortium of business elites from the Chinese General Chambers of Commerce and major chambers and federations of commerce and industry in the GBA.
It reaches out from the GBA to Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia and the UAE to monitor the economic opportunities and market developments, and maintains business relationships in those nations for GBA enterprises.
A youth public service platform encourages entrepreneurship and innovation through practical training and one-stop services for young GBA entrepreneurs. A law committee provides legal services for members, and other industrial and functional committees provide contextual depth to enhance business decisions in uncertain times.
Strength in mobility and adaptation
International business and industry-based chambers of commerce also provide face-to-face social, business and collaborative opportunities, support for expatriates and returning students, and information for all their stakeholders in formats such as BritCham Southern China’s “Industry Pulse” newsletter.
Many chambers make submissions to governments on policy positions, advocating for their members and country-of-origin interests: EuroCham’s 2024 Hong Kong government policy address submission is an example. The European Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong is a “chamber of chambers” comprising 16 European Chambers of Commerce.
The equivalent European chamber in Macau was founded in 2013 by the British, the French, Romanian, German, Portuguese and Irish chambers. Other foreign chambers are now included as members. AustCham chambers in South China, Hong Kong and Macau have formed a joint GBA committee.
Then there are ongoing inter-chamber gatherings to offer further opportunities throughout the year in each of the regions of the GBA, while chambers individually continue to celebrate best practice in “Environment, Social and Governance” and business excellence through awards programs.
They also offer commentary on government policy initiatives and announcements. All these country-based and international business chambers are critical elements of the GBA business and industry eco-system in the sharing of resources, multi-lateral information flows, support, insight and potential responses to the sorts of environmental and geopolitical stresses with which we are all currently grappling.
Good news – yes, there are opportunities: by the end of April, the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge recorded 10 million passengers through its Zhuhai port; the fastest this milestone has been achieved in any one year to date.
This mobility underscores the success of integration in the GBA. It is also an indicator of domestic economic activity in this locale which bodes well in a transition to domestic consumption as a way to minimise exposure to unstable trading relationships and threats caused by embargo-level tariffs.
The GBA, once known as the manufacturing hub of cheap Chinese goods for the export market, has had the global spotlight turned upon it: the world has been forced to reassess the economic and technological advances that define the modern Chinese economy.
The tariff war, far from becoming that existential threat to the GBA, has spurred technological innovation, supply chain agility and market flexibility, and enlivened exciting opportunities for the next generation of tech-engineers and cyber-experts. Putting an organism under stress and managing it is not such a bad thing: it could be dubbed GBA Hypertrophy.
The mechanisms and institutions, inclusive of industry and business chambers, play a part in the heavy lifting of that eco-system and make it stronger. Leanda Lee, MDT
Key takeaways
Global disruptions in trade and geopolitics have shaken foundational beliefs and decision-making frameworks at both individual and institutional levels. The article highlights how U.S.-provoked geopolitical changes are forcing people and businesses to rethink investments, strategies, and trusted institutions.
Chambers of commerce in the Greater Bay Area act as stabilizers and enablers of adaptive economic responses. These organizations support businesses through collaboration, legal assistance, policy advocacy, and youth entrepreneurship programs, ensuring resilience amid uncertainty.
The GBA’s transformation under pressure has led to increased technological agility, regional integration, and signs of domestic activity suggest a shift from export dependency. The region has proven capacity to thrive under stress.
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