How Israel could retaliate to the growing push for recognition of a Palestinian state

Joseph Krauss, MDT/AP

France and Saudi Arabia hope to use this year’s United Nations General Assembly and the increasingly horrific war in Gaza to inject urgency into the quest for a two-state solution. Their efforts include a new road map for Palestinian statehood in territories Israel seized in 1967, and moves by several Western countries to join a global majority already recognizing such a state.

Britain, Canada and Australia formally recognized Palestine on Sunday, joining nearly 150 nations. France is expected to follow at the General Assembly. But the push faces major obstacles, beginning with vehement opposition from the United States and Israel. Washington blocked Palestinian officials from even attending the gathering, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened unilateral steps — possibly including annexation of parts of the West Bank.

The creation of a Palestinian state in east Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza has long been seen internationally as the only way to resolve the conflict. Supporters argue it would preserve Israel as a democracy with a Jewish majority. Without it, they say, Israel rules over millions of Palestinians without equal rights — a situation major human rights groups call apartheid. “Without a two-state solution, there will be no peace in the Middle East,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said last week.

Peace talks have faltered since the early 1990s amid violence and the expansion of settlements aimed at preventing a Palestinian state. Israel annexed east Jerusalem and considers it part of its capital, while over 500,000 settlers now live in the occupied West Bank alongside 3 million Palestinians under military rule. In Gaza, Israel’s offensive has killed tens of thousands, displaced nearly the entire population and pushed parts of the territory into famine.

Netanyahu’s government opposed Palestinian statehood even before the war. The Trump administration ignored negotiations, instead promoting ideas to resettle Gaza’s population abroad — plans critics call ethnic cleansing.

France and Saudi Arabia hope to end the conflict with a phased plan: a ceasefire, release of hostages, Israeli withdrawal, and Hamas ceding authority to a politically independent body under the Palestinian Authority. Gaza would be rebuilt with international aid, and regional normalization — possibly including Saudi-Israeli ties — would follow. The 193-member U.N. approved a nonbinding resolution endorsing the “New York Declaration” earlier this month.

The U.S. and Israel argue recognition rewards Hamas and complicates hostage talks. Ceasefire negotiations collapsed again after Israel struck Hamas negotiators in Qatar. Netanyahu portrays recognition as an attack on Israel, warning that unilateral measures against it “invite unilateral actions on our part.” His far-right allies openly call for annexing large parts of the West Bank, which would make a Palestinian state nearly impossible.

The French-Saudi plan avoids the most divisive issues: borders, settlements, Jerusalem, refugees and security. It relies heavily on the Palestinian Authority, which is unpopular and viewed as corrupt. Elections are promised within a year, though President Mahmoud Abbas has repeatedly delayed past votes, and Hamas — which won the last national election in 2006 — would be excluded unless it disarms and recognizes Israel.

These shortcomings mean the plan risks joining past failed initiatives, leaving Israel in control of the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean, ruling millions of Palestinians denied basic rights.

[Abriged]