Practical blueprint for growth and stability amid headwinds

In a world grappling with sluggish growth, geopolitical tension and policy whiplash, China’s 2026 Government Work Report offers predictability and certainty.

Delivered by Premier Li Qiang to the fourth session of the 14th National People’s Congress, the country’s top legislature, at its annual gathering in Beijing on Thursday, the report sets a pragmatic GDP growth target of 4.5-5% for this year and presents main objectives and major tasks for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) period featuring multiple key indicators.

After a 5% expansion in 2025 lifted the GDP to 140.19 trillion yuan ($20.4 trillion), policymakers are signaling that resilience is the focus. The 2026 growth target leaves room for structural adjustment, risk control and reform in the first year of the new five-year plan period, while keeping China on track toward its 2035 goal of doubling the 2020 per capita GDP.

Crucially, the target is set on the basis of a comprehensive balancing of various factors and supported by well-planned actions. The deficit-to-GDP ratio is set at around 4%, with a headline fiscal deficit of 5.89 trillion yuan. General public budget expenditure will exceed 30 trillion yuan for the first time. Authorities will issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special treasury bonds to fund national strategies and equipment upgrades, alongside 4.4 trillion yuan in local government special-purpose bonds to support projects, replace hidden debts and clear arrears.

The main objectives and major tasks for the new five-year plan period reinforce that signal. Rather than locking in a rigid medium-term growth figure, the plan opts for flexibility — GDP should grow within an appropriate range, with annual targets calibrated to conditions. This creates the space to fully leverage the policy toolkit.

The draft outline of the new five-year plan aims to raise the average years of schooling among the working-age population to 11.7 and life expectancy to 80 years. Long-term care insurance already covers 300 million people. In 2025, 12.67 million new urban jobs were created; for 2026, the goal is more than 12 million, with the surveyed unemployment rate around 5.5%.

The report shows that a system capable of mobilizing resources nationwide, aligning fiscal, monetary and industrial levers, and embedding efficiency and equity into its planning can deliver predictability. For global investors and policymakers, the size of the Chinese economy makes a 4.5-5% growth band look remarkable. In a turbulent world economy, a $20 trillion-plus system expanding at that pace — while raising R&D, upgrading industry, broadening social protection and cutting carbon intensity — exerts gravitational pull.

The more than 100 major projects outlined for the 2026-30 period — spanning advanced manufacturing, digital infrastructure, green transition and public services — further clarify direction. They are designed not only to sustain demand but to reshape supply, from frontier technologies to elderly care capacity.

None of this ignores the risks. That candor, paired with quantified targets and sequenced tasks, is part of the message of the report.

The deeper significance is not just about a single year’s number. It is the road map: goals quantified, tasks listed, timelines clarified. It conveys that policy is not lurching from headline to headline but proceeding along a charted course. In today’s uncertain times, that alone carries weight. [Abridged]

Editorial, China Daily