The world is closer to the grinding world order collapse of the 1930s, rather than new Cold War

David Ekbladh, Tufts University

The past decade has seen global upheaval, from the 2008 financial crisis to the COVID-19 pandemic and major regional conflicts. Many commentators liken today’s geopolitical tensions, especially between the U.S. and China, to a “new Cold War.” However, as a historian of the U.S.’s role in the world, I argue that this comparison is flawed. Instead, today’s world more closely resembles the disintegration of global order during the 1930s.

The 1930s, often referred to as a “low dishonest decade,” were marked by economic turmoil, the rise of authoritarian regimes, and the collapse of international stability. The Great Depression, which began with the 1929 stock market crash, unraveled the global economy, leading to widespread insecurity and discrediting liberal capitalism. Similarly, the 2008 financial crisis triggered economic chaos and undermined the liberal globalization that had dominated since the 1990s. Both periods saw people losing faith in established ideas and turning to more radical and extreme voices.

In the 1930s, the crisis of liberalism led to questions about the suitability of democracy and capitalism, particularly as these systems were already riddled with contradictions like discrimination and imperialism. This skepticism is echoed today as voters around the world increasingly support authoritarian-leaning populists. The appeal of strongman leaders like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and China’s Xi Jinping reflects a broader rejection of liberal values in favor of more centralized control.

Economic nationalism, a dominant force in the 1930s, has reemerged in recent years. Countries, including the U.S., have adopted protectionist policies to shield domestic industries from global competition, mirroring the economic fragmentation of the interwar period. This resurgence of economic nationalism is a symptom of a broader global trend toward fragmentation and rivalry.

The 1930s also saw the rise of totalitarian ideologies such as fascism, communism, and militarism, which gained legitimacy as liberal governments faltered. Today, the appeal of authoritarianism, particularly China’s model of economic growth under centralized control, reflects a similar disillusionment with liberalism.

During the 1930s, revisionist powers like Japan sought to reshape the global order through military aggression, as seen in Japan’s invasion of Manchuria in 1931. This parallels Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its ongoing aggression in Ukraine. The 1930s were marked by a series of conflicts in which revisionist states used force to challenge the existing international order, leading to widespread instability and eventually global war.

While it is unsettling to compare our current moment with the 1930s, the parallels are instructive. Recognizing that we are in a complex, multipolar period similar to the interwar years can help us understand the forces at play and potentially avoid the catastrophic outcomes that followed that era.

Our future does not have to mirror the global conflicts of the past. The rise of regional powers like Brazil and India reminds us that historical actors evolve, and new alliances can form. By acknowledging the complexity of our time and learning from history, we may be able to navigate these challenges and avoid repeating the mistakes that led to global war in the 20th century.

[Abridged]