Barry Hatton, MDT/AP
The second Oval Office meeting in six months between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was strikingly different from their February encounter. This time, the tone was calm, the smiles were plentiful, and European leaders joined in what looked like a united front. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz even admitted that his expectations “were not just met, they were exceeded.”
Yet beneath the friendly atmosphere lurked the same problems that have stalled peace efforts since Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago. The gathering in Washington produced no breakthroughs on the central disputes of security guarantees, a ceasefire, occupied territory, or a possible Zelenskyy-Putin meeting. That reality benefits one man above all: Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose forces continue a slow but steady grind on the battlefield.
For Kyiv, the central concern remains future security. Zelenskyy insists Ukraine must be able to deter Russia from trying again once a deal is struck. That means weapons, training, and potentially a NATO-like guarantee of collective defense. European governments want the United States locked into such an arrangement. Trump offered “coordination” but stopped short of promising troops. Russia, for its part, has flatly rejected the idea of NATO or NATO-linked forces on Ukrainian soil.
The problem is that Putin sees no reason to halt his advance. While Ukraine and its allies keep pressing for a ceasefire as a precondition for talks, the Kremlin holds the upper hand. Trump initially threatened Moscow with “severe consequences” if it refused to freeze the fighting. But after meeting Putin last week, he shifted his line, declaring that a ceasefire was “unnecessary” and that talks should focus directly on a final settlement. Later, after his Oval Office talks with Zelenskyy and European leaders, he seemed to change course again, saying all would prefer an immediate truce. Such inconsistencies leave both allies and adversaries guessing.
The most explosive question is what to do about occupied Ukrainian territory. Putin wants Kyiv to formally surrender the Donbas, Crimea, and parts of six other regions that together make up about a fifth of the country. Zelenskyy has repeatedly insisted the constitution forbids breaking up Ukraine and has warned that territorial concessions would only invite another invasion later. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said the subject did not come up in Washington, emphasizing that it is ultimately for Zelenskyy and Putin to decide.
That leads to the question of whether the two men will ever meet. Zelenskyy has long called for direct talks with Putin, even proposing to meet him in Turkey this past May. Putin brushed it off. On Monday, Trump said he had called Putin and begun making arrangements for a meeting between the two presidents, with Trump joining afterward. But the Kremlin has not confirmed that such a gathering is on the horizon.
European leaders are caught in a bind. They know Putin does not want to meet Zelenskyy and will not accept Western forces in Ukraine. Still, they talk up possibilities to make sure that if those hopes are dashed, Putin is seen as the spoiler rather than Trump. As Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs observed, “Europeans hype up expectations to create a reality in which Putin disappoints.”
The Washington meeting may have exceeded some leaders’ expectations, but the central dilemmas remain as intractable as ever. Smiles and optimistic statements cannot change the fact that peace in Ukraine still depends on whether Putin believes he gains more on the battlefield than at the negotiating table.
[Abridged]
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