Jon Gambrell, MDT/AP
For Iran’s theocratic government, it keeps getting worse.
Its decadeslong strategy of building an “Axis of Resistance” supporting militant groups and proxies around the region is falling apart. First came the crushing Israeli campaign in Gaza triggered by the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Iranian-backed Hamas.
That war spawned another in Lebanon, where Israel has mauled Iran’s most powerful ally, Hezbollah, even as Israel has launched successful airstrikes openly inside of Iran for the first time.
And now Iran’s longtime stalwart ally and client in Syria, President Bashar Assad, is gone. As dawn broke Sunday, rebel forces completed a lightning offensive by seizing the ancient capital of Damascus and tearing down symbols of more than 50 years of Assad’s rule over the Mideast crossroads.
Ali Akbar Velayati, a key adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, once called Assad and Syria “the golden ring of the resistance chain in the region.”
“Without the Syrian government, this chain will break and the resistance against Israel and its supporters will be weakened.”
That break in the chain is literal. Syria was an important geographical link that allowed Iran to move weapons and other supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Its loss now further weakens Hezbollah, whose powerful arsenal in southern Lebanon had put Iranian influence directly on the border of its nemesis Israel.
Iran still holds the card of its nuclear program. Though it denies that intention, it can use the potential for building a weapons capability to cast a shadow of influence in the region.
It’s a dramatic reversal in Iran’s regional might
Only a few years ago, the Islamic Republic loomed ascendant across the wider Middle East. Its “Axis of Resistance” was at a zenith.
Hezbollah in Lebanon stood up against Israel. Assad appeared to have weathered an Arab Spring uprising-turned-civil war. Iraqi insurgents killed U.S. troops with Iranian-designed roadside bombs. Yemen’s Houthi rebels fought a Saudi-led coalition to a stalemate.
Syria, at the crossroads, played a vital role.
But the speed of Assad’s collapse the past week showed just how reliant he was on support from Iran and Russia — which at the crucial moment didn’t come.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Assad’s fall a “historic day,” saying it was “the direct result of our forceful action against Hezbollah and Iran, Assad’s main supporters.”
Iran’s theocratic rulers long touted their regional network to Iranians as a show of their country’s strength, and its crumbling could raise repercussions at home — though there is no immediate sign of their hold weakening. Anger over the tens of billions of dollars Iran is believed to have spent propping up Assad was a rallying cry in rounds of nationwide anti-government protests that have broken out over recent years, most recently in 2022.
Iran could respond by revving up its nuclear program
The loss of Syria does not mean the end of Iran’s ability to project power in the Mideast.
There remains a risk of wider attacks in the region, particularly on oil infrastructure. An attack in 2019 initially claimed by the Houthis but later assessed by experts to have been carried out by Iran temporarily halved Saudi Arabia’s production of oil.
Whatever happens next, Iran will need to make the decision weighing the problems it faces at both home and abroad.
[Abridged]
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