Academic sees upcoming election as ‘unpredictable’

Local academic Eilo Yu expects the upcoming parliamentary election to be competitive and unpredictable, despite fewer lists participating.
In an interview with local Chinese paper the Macao Daily News, Yu gave his analysis on this year’s Legislative Assembly Election. He pointed out that although fewer lists are fighting for the same number of seats, it will be more competitive than in previous elections.
He pointed out that last four to five seats will be the most difficult to determine.
Considering four incumbent lawmakers will either transfer to the indirect election constituency or withdraw from the frontline, the flow of votes is still unpredictable but will be diverted, according to Yu.
Meanwhile, the impact of the departure from the frontline of lawmakers Ng Kuok Cheong and Au Kam San is still unclear. They have garnered established support in the previous two decades. Whether their successors will be able to retain their advantages is a debatable matter.
On the other hand, a group that split into two lists in the last election choosing to reunite as a single list is running a safe strategy, Yu said. He added that more observation is needed to determine if communal societies are retaining or losing their influence.
Yu also estimated that the effects of the pandemic may have an impact on the resources for promotions that candidates can enjoy. It may be beneficial to a clean election, he said.
He explained that the pandemic has struck the economy hard, which may lead to a reduction in the number of resources available for the elections. With a drop in the promotional efforts, certain lists may experience weaker support.
On the flipside, the academic added that the shortage of resources may help clean up the election. AL