Analysis | HKZMB: Shenzhen’s exclusion is a missed opportunity for Macau

The long-anticipated Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge (HKZMB) is expected to finally enter operation on July 1, marking a milestone in the formation of the Central Government’s Greater Bay Area policy.

Having faced numerous setbacks including delays, cost overruns and construction-related controversies, the 55-kilometer monumental structure is the longest sea-crossing bridge in the world and is expected to enhance logistics and transportation between some 66 million people living in the Greater Bay Area.

Though Macau is involved in the project and will be home to one of its three terminals, the benefits to the city of this increased connectivity are still in question, especially as the MSAR already enjoys strong transportation links with both Zhuhai and Hong Kong.

Instead, Macau might have benefited from a project that connected it to other major cities in southern China, like Shenzhen.

The Greater Bay Area, a plan advanced by the Chinese Central Government, seeks greater integration between nine cities in the Pearl River Delta area and the two special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau.

Little information has been released by the Central Government concerning what the plan actually entails. What is known is that deeper economic integration with Guangdong Province – however marginal – is likely to entail an erosion of the SARs’ economic autonomy.

The biggest step to date in the formation of the Greater Bay Area, which may soon become the wealthiest bay area worldwide, is the opening of the giant infrastructure project.

However, overshadowed by the major import-export hubs of Hong Kong and Shenzhen, and with Zhuhai eyeing a seat at the top table, Macau’s contribution to the initiative will be limited, and its benefits are similarly not so clear-cut.

Greater access to the populous province across the border could be a boon for Macau businesses, but it could also disadvantage small- and medium-sized companies against larger competitors on the mainland with access to cheaper labor and greater economies of scale.

That is not the narrative espoused by business leaders and influential individuals in Macau, who have almost unanimously backed the HKZMB. They predict that the project will bring a host of benefits to the MSAR, including reduced logistics costs via a quicker route to Hong Kong’s international airport and improved transportation infrastructure intended to ease congestion at the Border Gate.

Indeed, a central objective of the infrastructure project is the creation of a tri-city tourism hub encompassing Hong Kong’s city attractions, Macau’s gambling facilities and Zhuhai’s beaches and natural scenery. But why not a quad-city tourism hub?

Expected soon to overtake Shanghai as China’s second city, nearby Shenzhen is notably excluded from the project. And yet Macau, with far less to offer Hong Kong and Zhuhai, is permitted to have its own terminal in the HKZMB.

Shenzhen might also see its exclusion from the project as a missed opportunity.

Dissatisfied with having been left out of the project, Shenzhen officials are working on their own sea link to connect the Chinese tech hub to Zhongshan across the Pearl River. At 51 kilometers in length, the bridge is expected to cost USD4.83 billion; about 30 percent of the estimated $16 billion for the 55-kilometer-long HKZMB.                     

That is because Shenzhen is a natural choice for a bridge terminus, considering its rapid development into an export hub of southern China. The city generated $338 billion in GDP last year, slightly less than Hong Kong’s $340 billion. While Hong Kong’s economy grew by a respectable 3.8 percent in 2017, Shenzhen surged past that, expanding at a rate of 8.8 percent.

According to the Civil Aviation Administration of China, the international airports of Guangzhou Baiyun and Shenzhen Bao’an handle the third and fourth highest volume of cargo respectively, only behind Shanghai Pudong and Beijing Capital.

Hong Kong International Airport remains by far the busiest cargo-handling air facility in the world, serving around 30 percent more volume than that of Shanghai Pudong and more than 2.5 times Beijing Capital.

After more than a decade of trying to transform Macau into a service platform for Sino-Lusophone trade, cargo volume at the international (albeit regional) airport stands at 0.7 percent of that of Hong Kong. Data from the Statistics and Census Service show imports, rather than exports, constitute the vast majority of that trade.

As well-developed land and ferry connections already exist with both Zhuhai and Hong Kong, the exclusion of Shenzhen from the HKZMB represents a lost opportunity for Macau and, in relative terms, diminishes the value that the infrastructure project could provide.

Even the authorities of the three cities recognize that Macau’s gain from the project will be significantly smaller than the benefits reaped by Hong Kong and Zhuhai.

According to a Hong Kong LegCo paper, “the three governments have agreed that it is most appropriate to allocate the project cost of the HZMB Main Bridge in proportion to the direct economic benefit to be received by them,” while they will finance their own terminals and access links separately.

The authorities of the three cities have agreed that Macau will contribute about 12.6 percent of the costs for the main section of the bridge, proportionate to the benefits it will purportedly receive.