Channel checks indicate visa denial of frequent gamblers: Bernstein
China’s National Immigration Administration has recently reconfirmed strict Covid-19 border policy and restrictions on non-essential travel, a move that could further hamper arrivals, particularly of bettors, into the SAR.
Last week, the administration indicated in a report that since 2021, it had barred over 90,000 people who were allegedly “engaged in gambling activities” from leaving the country, according to a report issued by GGR Asia.
The report did not include the destinations to which the people were supposed to travel.
Given the announcement, “We expect near-term visitation [to Macau] and [casino] revenue may remain constrained,” said brokerage Sanford Bernstein.
According to the memo released earlier this week by the firm, the “latest channel checks have indicated that frequent gamblers to Macau have seen [their] visa issuance denied by China immigration offices.”
In terms of gross gaming revenue (GGR), the brokerage considers May 10 to May 15 revenues to have been the “worst” since October 2020, the month that the mainland resumed IVS [individual visit scheme travel] visas.
Analysts’ figures show that the GGR of that week was only MOP50 million daily, on average.
Even though May included a Golden Week holiday, revenue performance was still down from May 1 to May 9, as analysts saw a 75% plunge.
The city, according to the brokerage, has so far earned MOP2.1 billion for the first 15 days of the month, with a “month-to-date average daily rate of MOP140 million, down 83% compared to the May 2019 average daily rate, and down 58% versus the May 2021 average daily rate.”
Late last week, the Second Standing Committee of the Legislative Assembly said that there is a goal of exploring foreign markets rather than focusing on mainland China, following announcement that it was considering lowering the casino taxes by up to 5% if casinos are able to bring in players from outside China.
The committee has cited the enactment of Article 303 of the Mainland’s Criminal Law, which foreshadows that anyone who “organizes” gambling trips or activities for mainland citizens to Macau will be considered to be breaking the law, may affect the flow of tourists from the mainland.
