CreditSights analysis shows casino comeback decelerates as market recovers

Casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to recover to between 75% and 80% of 2019 levels, or around USD28 billion, in 2024, according to a report by CreditSights, a division of the Fitch group. However, the institution notes that the year-on-year growth trends have “decelerated as the recovery matures.”

While casino GGR for 2023 stood at MOP183.06billion, up 333.8% year-on-year, CreditSights expects the full-year 2024 GGR to be a 24% increase from the previous year. “While we expect to see additional growth for the remainder of 2024, year-on-year trends have decelerated as the recovery matures,” the institution stated in its report.

The report also highlights that the recovery has been uneven, with the mass market segment leading the way. “Since coming out of Covid, we’ve seen a quicker recovery for the mass market, which now represents the majority of Macau’s GGR,” CreditSights observed, as cited in a GGRAsia report.

In the first half of 2024, Macau received nearly 16.73 million visitors, about 82.5% of the same period in 2019. The overall figure represented an average of 91,918 arrivals per day during the period.

According to CreditSights, the near extinction of junket-promoters has “meaningfully impacted the recovery for VIP GGR.” The institution also noted that among the casino operators in Macau, MGM China Holdings Ltd has emerged as “the biggest winner coming out of Covid,” benefiting from a “meaningful increase in market share” following its recent concession renewal. VC