Citi: GGR tops MOP13b so far in May

Local gross gaming revenue (GGR) increased to an estimated MOP12.7 billion in the first 18 days of May, according to a Citigroup memo released earlier this week.

Analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau noted this translates to a daily run rate of about MOP593 million for the week of May 12-18. This marks a 3% increase over the previous six days and aligns with expected post-Labor Day seasonality.

The Golden Week holiday period, spanning from May 1 to May 5, served as a key period for the local gaming sector. This holiday saw an influx of visitors from mainland China and Hong Kong.

According to the Macao Government Tourism Office (MGTO), more than 170,000 tourists entered Macau on average each day during the Labor Day period.

Mainland Chinese tourists accounted for much of the growth, with 678,521 arrivals during the holiday period, a 39.6% increase from the previous year.

Visitors from Hong Kong also surged by 42.3% to 111,189.

JP Morgan Securities estimated the daily GGR during this holiday stretch at MOP1.02 billion, totaling MOP5.1 billion over five days.

Citi maintained its full-month May GGR forecast at MOP21 billion, projecting a 4% year-on-year growth.

The forecast is strengthened by a strong entertainment lineup, including concerts by popular Cantopop artists Sammi Cheng, Show Lo, and Leon Lai, which Citi believes will further stimulate casino business.

This growth comes amid some regulatory tightening, including controls on illegal gambling and higher gaming taxes, such as a 35% special gaming tax on GGR and additional levies that increase the total tax burden to around 40%.

Despite challenges such as China’s economic slowdown and regulatory crackdowns on capital outflows, the gaming sector continues to leverage strategic entertainment and tourism policies to maintain steady revenue growth.