Investment banks expect May GGR to reach MOP22.5 billion

The gaming revenue is expected to reach MOP22.5 billion in May, representing a 6% year-on-year increase, according to investment bank estimates, as daily gross gaming revenue (GGR) trends show a mild slowdown from early-month levels.

Citing industry sources, Citigroup said Macau’s GGR in the first 17 days of May is estimated at MOP12.65 billion. The average daily GGR for May 11–17 stood at MOP693 million, down about 11% from MOP780 million recorded during the first 10 days of the month, which included the Labour Day holiday period.

However, this still represents a 1% increase compared with the same period last year.

Citigroup maintained a full-month forecast of MOP22.5 billion, implying a 6% annual increase. This suggests average daily GGR of about MOP704 million for the remainder of the month.

Separately, UBS reported similar trends based on channel checks, estimating month-to-date average daily GGR at MOP744 million, up about 5% year-on-year and 12% month-on-month.

UBS noted that segment performance remains mixed. Mass-market gaming revenue is estimated to have risen 12–14% month-on-month, while VIP betting volumes increased 15–18%. However, VIP win rates remain relatively low at 2.3% to 2.6%.

Assuming a VIP win rate of 3% to 3.3%, UBS estimated underlying gaming revenue could imply daily levels of MOP750 million to MOP800 million.

Market consensus forecasts May average daily GGR at about MOP727 million, up 6.3% year-on-year, implying a required run rate of about MOP706 million per day for the rest of the month.