João Pedro Lau
During our geography class in high school, our teacher would sometimes share with us his travelling experiences, especially his journeys to mainland China. He went to places like Guangxi and Inner Mongolia before they were polluted or commercialized.
Among the many mainland attractions he mentioned, the one that fascinated me the most was the relics of the small kingdoms alongside the Silk Road in northwest China.
Among those kingdoms was the Loulan Kingdom, or Kroran. It caught my attention because of its name in Chinese, which is both elegant and mysterious. Some historians believe that Loulan was once a splendid kingdom because of its location on the Silk Road. However, after hundreds of years of prosperity, the kingdom suddenly disappeared from the world some time in the fourth or the fifth century.
There were several theories on the decline of Loulan. Some said that it was because of the changing course of the river and the changing position of lakes, which led to the kingdom suffering from a severe water shortage. Others pointed out that there were military conflicts taking place in the region, which might have caused the demise of Loulan. Another hypothesis was that the kingdom was abandoned after merchants opened a new route for the Silk Road. Regardless of the reasons, it is easy to understand that a small kingdom like Loulan is very vulnerable to external changes.
Coming back to the present, while kingdoms like Loulan are long gone, we can actually find regions in the present world that are similar to Loulan; and Macau is one of the examples.
Just like Loulan, Macau used to be on the maritime Silk Road, which made it a prosperous seaport. However, it was eventually replaced by Hong Kong and later rendered a far less important city.
Although it found its glory back through the gaming industry, Macau is still highly susceptible to external factors and there is the chance it will face another decline in the future.
I believe that the central government has also forecast this gloomy future and has thus been urging and pushing the Macau government to diversify its economy through playing its old role –
the trade nexus between China and the world, especially the Portuguese speaking countries.
However, the Macau government seems to be pretty unresponsive to this request. Although there were gestures and slogans coming from senior officials, there have been very few substantial moves toward truly fostering Macau as a trade platform.
The current prosperity of Macau may continue into the foreseeable future, but it definitely is not going to last forever. There is no place in the world that can generate wealth indefinitely only through gambling. And when the right storm hits Macau, be it a deeper recession in the Chinese economy, the further strengthening of anti-corruption measures, or worse, the legalization of gambling in other Chinese cities, Macau will face its second decline and become the modern Loulan.
I know these types of warnings have already been flooding the media for ages, but it is time for Macau to take this warning seriously since time is truly running out.
It was reported yesterday by MDT that Zhuhai has decided to build a free trade center for China and three Portuguese-speaking countries in Hengqin. Although the Zhuhai authority maintained that the measure is only to help Macau’s economic diversification, it is obvious that Hengqin is capable of replacing Macau if it receives enough support from the local and central government, and can successfully attract the skilled professionals it needs.
I think the recent gaming revenue slump has already forced the Macau government to put more effort into finding an alternative industry for the SAR. I hope that they can do it quick enough so that Macau will not eventually be abandoned.
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