Gaming | Brokerages revise December GGR higher on mass strength

Gaming analysts have forecast higher gross gaming revenue (GGR) for this month than November, when they amounted to nearly MOP25 billion.

Brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein increased its forecast for the city’s gaming revenue this month to 12 to 15 percent year- on-year, slightly higher than its previous forecast of 8 to 10 percent, citing strong channel checks in the mass market segment.

“This assumes that average daily revenue for the remainder of the month will be in the MOP775 million to MOP825 million range, which is below the current run rate for the month,” said the firm.

“We had initially thought that VIPs were a driver of the upside surprise, however, our recent conversations with junket operators and casino operators, along with additional data points, have led us to revise our thinking and mass was stronger than we had initially expected,” the team noted. 

According to data it published, the brokerage said that the city’s GGR was about MOP13.8 billion so far this month, which could mean that its average daily revenue will amount to MOP862 million.

The brokerage found that the current volume in the VIP market was trending slightly higher than last month.

“Both segments have benefitted from events, including several days of Jay Chou’s The Invincible Concert Tour held at the Venetian [Macao],” Sanford C. Bernstein analysts wrote.

Meanwhile, Japanese brokerage Nomura is estimating a GGR of between MOP25 billion to MOP26 billion – some 10 to 15 percent higher than a year ago.

According to their data, GGR averaged about MOP843 million per day last week and MOP878 million per day the week before.

“Assuming December GGR per day is flat sequentially versus the average in November, we estimate GGR for the month will be around MOP25 billion to MOP26 billion,” analysts noted.

So far, Nomura has said that the average daily GGR in the mass-market segment is about 4 percent or 5 percent higher than in November, while volume in the VIP market is about 3 percent higher.

Figures from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau show that revenue in December last year stood at nearly MOP23 billion, a 14.6 percent increase compared to the year before – which represented a total accumulated gross revenue of MOP266 billion for 2017.

If the forecasts are correct, the city’s GGR will total over MOP301 billion in 2018, representing growth of approximately 13 percent year-on-year.