Gov’t estimates 2026 GGR below original forecast for 2025

The government projects the city’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) to reach MOP236 billion in 2026. This forecast, omitted from Chief Executive (CE) Sam Hou Fai’s 2026 policy address, was revealed yesterday along with the release of next year’s fiscal budget plan.

The projected figure falls short of the initial 2025 forecast (MOP240 billion) made by the outgoing government of Ho Iat Seng. It is just 3.5% higher than the revised estimate for 2025 (MOP228 billion) set in June this year, following weaker-than-expected gaming results between November 2024 and April this year.

The fiscal budget plan highlights recent increases in visitor numbers and the gaming industry’s success, noting that monthly GGR exceeded MOP20 billion for several months this year and pointing to a positive outlook for tourism, with the rise in visitors likely to continue into 2026.

However, the government emphasized that the 2026 GGR forecast reflects “caution amid global economic uncertainties,” describing the estimate as the basis for that year’s fiscal planning.

The Legislative Assembly will soon address the budget proposal, as budgets are reviewed and approved under “Budget Laws.”

Against the trend

As of October, the accumulated GGR for 2025 has reached MOP205.43 billion, or an average of MOP20.54 billion per month, a figure that is even higher than the forecast from the previous government that ceased duties in December 2024.

Compared to the revised forecast by the current government (an average of MOP19 billion per month), the current GGR level is approximately 8.1% higher, exceeding their estimates for 2026.

Compared with the current GGR level, the prediction now represents a 4.24% decrease for 2026.

The government forecast also differs from that of market analysts, with Morgan Stanley describing the gaming industry’s outlook as positive in a memo released this week. The private bank noted that monthly GGR continues to grow at over 10% year over year, forecasting a further 16% rise through April 2026.

A similar analysis was presented by Citibank, which said 2025 might close around MOP248.6 billion, representing 10% year-on-year growth, and forecast 2026 GGR to grow between 5% and 7% to MOP265.5 billion.