Hornbuckle sees Macau market rebound, flags UAE licensing delays

MGM’s CEO, Bill Hornbuckle, offered a positive outlook on Macau’s market performance, noting the company’s anticipated 28% margin in the region at last week’s Bank of America Securities 2025 Gaming & Lodging Conference.

MGM expressed confidence in the SAR’s market trajectory while acknowledging ongoing uncertainties over its Dubai resort casino license.

During a fireside chat last week, Hornbuckle attributed Macau’s strong rebound to China’s recent easing of travel restrictions that had previously limited visit frequency under policies such as the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS).

He noted the marked policy shift, stating, “They have allowed people to come,” contrasting sharply with the tighter controls that were in place previously.

Hornbuckle elaborated, “If you go back a year or two ago, they were telling individuals, ‘I’m sorry, you’ve been four times, you can’t go a fifth time.’ Any and all of that has stopped for now. I think they’re letting the market run.”

This change reflects China’s broader move to expand the IVS to new areas and ease visitation limits for nearby regions such as Zhuhai, effectively opening the floodgates for tourism and economic recovery in Macau.

It coincides with Macau welcoming around 25 million visitors this year.

However, the MGM CEO pointed out that this number largely consists of repeat visits from a relatively small group of about seven to eight million unique individuals who come multiple times annually.

“The actual penetration compared to 1.4 billion in China is slim to nothing,” he said, highlighting the untapped potential in reaching a vastly larger audience.

Regarding the Chinese market, Hornbuckle noted that MGM has a strong understanding of its customers, giving the company a competitive advantage. He emphasized that, while MGM operates nine hotels in China, the company closely monitors the local economy and hospitality trends to stay well-informed and responsive to market sentiments.

Market share surge

Contrary to concerns that the removal of junket operators might dampen growth in Macau, Hornbuckle emphasized that the sector is thriving, thanks to a strong influx of VIP and premium mass customers from the mainland, Southeast Asia, and other regions.

Despite intense promotional competition in the market and broader industry trends, Hornbuckle observed, “Now others are following suit, and that’s not a surprise,” referring to the strategic pivot toward premium market segments in Macau.

Post-pandemic, MGM has emerged as the top market-share gainer in Macau’s casino segment. The company’s share jumped from below 10% to above 16.6%, a significant leap driven by targeted promotional efforts, casino floor revamps, increased gaming tables, and the addition of more villas and suites at both MGM Macau and MGM Cotai.

By adding more villas and suites, alongside expanding gaming tables (including repurposing junket tables), the company has better met market demand and helped MGM achieve an adjusted EBITDA margin of around 28%. The CEO recognized that the company’s Macau properties were previously undersupplied with suites and rooms relative to their scale. “We were under-suited and, generally speaking, we’re under-roomed given our scale. And we have outperformed,” he said.

Progress in Japan and UAE projects stall

MGM is progressing with its integrated resort (IR) development in Osaka, Japan, expected to open in late 2030. Hornbuckle noted construction milestones, including 52 foundation piles poured, and underlined the scale of the project.

“We are projecting an opening in the third or fourth quarter of 2030. What you’re looking at is about – between the 2,800 rooms, that will become one of the world’s, if not the world’s, largest casino, with 750 tables and over 6,000 slot machines,” said Hornbuckle.

On the non-gaming side, there will be over 70 food and beverage outlets, a theater with a seating capacity of 3,500, and extensive convention and MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conventions, and Exhibitions) facilities spanning just under one million square feet.

Shifting focus to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Hornbuckle updated the audience that construction is progressing on a manmade island near Jumeirah Beach and the Burj Al Arab, with a casino podium integrated into the design. However, final approval from Dubai’s ruler remains pending.

Hornbuckle highlighted that their partner, Wasl, which is owned by Dubai’s ruler, has enabled them to build a “250,000-square-foot podium right in the middle at a floor on the intent that hopefully, someday, it becomes a casino.”

The USD2.5 billion project, which began in 2024 and is situated on a 25-acre island, will feature three major hotel brands – MGM, Bellagio, and Aria – with around 1,800 rooms in total. According to PropSearch.ae, MGM’s Jumeirah Beach facility is due to be completed in H2 2028.

Despite construction gains, Hornbuckle expressed surprise over the delay in licensing decisions. “I thought by now, Abu Dhabi would have ruled on what they were doing,” he said, noting ongoing discussions but no final verdict yet.

Meanwhile, Craig Billings, CEO of Wynn, noted last month that the Wynn Al Marjan Island resort in Ras Al Khaimah, scheduled to open in 2027, is expected to become the UAE’s first and only casino initially.

This position would grant MGM’s Las Vegas rival, Wynn, a monopoly in the emerging market, which the operator estimates could generate up to $5 billion in annual revenue. Some analysts even predict the figure could reach as high as $8 billion.