Macau’s new role in the GBA – to create a financial platform for investments in Lusophone countries

[AI-GENERATED ILLUSTRATION]

Analysis

Whether in trade, investment or tourism, China remains one of the world’s largest markets and, arguably, the one with the greatest growth potential. Even accounting for the partial relocation of Chinese companies to other regions – notably Southeast Asia – China continues to function as the main engine of the global economy. It retains a powerful industrial base feeding a formidable export machine, responsible for roughly one-third of its GDP growth. In international trade terms, China is the world’s largest exporter and second-largest importer. As a market, it is today among the top importers of a wide range of products, from raw materials and industrial components to capital goods, technology and services.

Trade in goods between China and Portuguese-speaking Countries (PSC) reached US$205.177 billion between January and November 2025, according to data from China Customs. PSC exports to China totaled US$124.714 billion in the first eight months of 2025, while China’s merchandise exports to PSC reached US$80.463 billion over the same period.

China’s outbound direct investment (ODI) has expanded significantly in recent years, both under the Belt and Road Initiative and, more specifically, in PSC. This reflects a strategic focus on these markets, aimed at strengthening China’s economic influence and securing resources globally. Investment has spanned multiple sectors, with particular emphasis on energy – especially renewable projects aligned with global sustainability goals – infrastructure, and technology, including initiatives linked to the digital economy.

Urban China and GBA’s strategic role

Although official statistics are organized by country, treating China as a single market is a strategic mistake for most companies. With the exception of online marketplaces, a more pragmatic approach is to view China as a collection of large regional markets. Urban China, encompassing more than 950 million people, consists of multiple sub-markets, each requiring regionally tailored distributors and customer strategies.

For PSC companies, the most relevant of China’s so-called ‘supercity clusters’ is the Pearl River Delta Greater Bay Area (PRD/GBA). The GBA comprises nine mainland cities plus the two special administrative regions of Macau and Hong Kong, centered on the Macau–Hong Kong–Shenzhen–Guangzhou axis. It covers approximately 56,000 square kilometers, has a population of around 86 million (2022 data), an aggregate GDP of roughly US$2 trillion (2024 data), and a nominal GDP per capita of about US$23,800.

The principal institutional driver of growing trade and investment ties between China and PSC has been the Forum for Economic and Trade Cooperation between China and Portuguese-speaking Countries (Forum Macau), working in conjunction with China’s Ministry of Commerce. However, far more could be achieved, particularly at the entrepreneurial level. A renewed push in China–PSC economic relations requires stronger coordination among the public agencies responsible for trade and investment promotion in both China and PSC, including those of Hong Kong and Macau.

Chambers of commerce also play a critical role in fostering meaningful business initiatives. From the GBA perspective, engagement from the Guangdong Federation of Industry and Commerce, IPIM and the Hong Kong Trade Development Council is essential. Equally important is the presence of active and coordinated chambers of commerce. In this context, the recently established PSC–GBA Chamber of Commerce and Industry, promoted by Rodrigo Brum, former vice-chairman of Forum Macau, holds considerable potential.

Financial platform ambition: promise and delay

At the 5th Forum Macau Ministerial Conference in October 2016, China’s prime minister announced that “China will support Macau to become a financial services platform,” explicitly linking this ambition to Macau’s role as a bridge between China and PSC.

The Outline Development Plan for the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macau Greater Bay Area, promulgated in February 2019, provides the overarching framework for developing an international financial hub in the GBA and defines Macau’s role within it. Under this plan, the Macau government was expected to define a policy for establishing a financial services platform and to outline concrete implementation strategies.

At a first and more immediate level – closely tied to Macau’s China–PSC connector role – priorities included developing a China–PSC financial services platform, establishing an export credit insurance system, positioning Macau as an RMB clearing center for PSC, leveraging its role as headquarters of the China–PSC Cooperation and Development Fund, and strengthening financial cooperation services between China and PSC.

At a second level, subject to further study, the plan envisaged the possible creation of an RMB-denominated securities market in Macau, a green finance platform, a Macau–Zhuhai cross-boundary financial cooperation demonstration zone, the development of specialized financial products such as leasing, and enhanced cooperation with Shenzhen in niche financial services.

To date, the vast majority of these tasks remain unfulfilled.

Nonetheless, political relations between China and PSC remain strong. Both sides broadly share a vision of a multipolar and interdependent global order, characterized by open trade and the need for dialogue, cooperation and solidarity. Relations between PSC and Chinese citizens are also positive – with Macau serving as a notable example – and these ties are critical, as trade and investment ultimately follow geopolitical realities.

Regardless of delays in implementing the GBA Outline Plan, partnerships between PSC and Chinese companies should move forward, particularly those seeking to raise funds within the GBA. While financing structures will vary by project, early cases are likely to involve RMB financing and bond issuance. Ideally, such issuances should take place in Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macau, where the Chongwa (Macao) Financial Asset Exchange Co., Ltd. (MOX) has already begun developing relevant operations, albeit not yet focused on PSC-related projects.

Delays by the Macau government in establishing the policy framework outlined in the GBA plan should not become an obstacle to fundraising within the GBA for China–PSC partnerships. On the contrary, such initiatives can help pave the way, in practice, for Macau to emerge as a genuine China–PSC financial services platform. By Jorge Costa Oliveira