Spain | Catalonia reaches Rubicon as Rajoy vows no independence vote
A pro-independence flag flies in a street in Girona
Now we find out how far the Catalan separatists are prepared to go.
After more than five years of street demonstrations and propaganda, the movement wants to see legislation for an unconstitutional referendum on independence from Spain before their annual demonstration next week. The regional parliament’s board opted not to push forward the bill at its meeting yesterday, though separatist lawmakers could still decide to consider the text at any point in the plenary session due to end Thursday.
“It’s time to see real concrete measures,” said Jordi Sanchez, head of the Catalan National Assembly, a civic group that has led the campaign for secession. “Unless the Spanish government puts up barriers in front of the parliament, we will have the laws we need.”
Approving the legal framework for the contested ballot set for Oct. 1 would pose the biggest challenge to the 1978 constitutional settlement that drew a line under the Franco dictatorship and reinstated an autonomous government in Barcelona, the regional capital.
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, whose party has only marginal support in Catalonia, has to act with enough firmness to appease those in the rest of Spain enraged by the Catalans’ maneuvers, but without inflaming the situation further.
The government says it has prepared measures to stop the vote taking place, whatever the Catalans might try.
Few independent observers give the separatists much chance.
Their efforts to rally public support from international institutions have failed; support for their cause has slipped to a five-
year low as Spain recovers from the financial crisis; and if push comes to shove, Madrid pays most of the salaries of the Catalan police, who might have to pick sides in the event of a direct confrontation.
“It’s hard to see any scenario in which independence happens in the near future,” said Nicolas Veron, a senior researcher at Brussels-based Bruegel and the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “But you can’t say for sure that the Spanish government will enforce the rule of law.”
The risk premium on Spain’s 10-year government debt has widened by about 13 basis points since the start of August, but the bonds still yielded just 117 points more than similarly dated German bunds on Monday. That compares with more than 600 points in 2012. Investors have been demanding more yield to hold Italian debt than Spanish debt since the middle of last year.
Hanging over it all is the threat of terrorism. Islamists killed 16 people last month in attacks in Barcelona and a nearby beach resort. The aftermath has seen politicians and security officials in Madrid and Catalonia exchanging allegations over who was to blame, souring further an already tense atmosphere.
“Just to survive politically, they will have to go beyond what they initially planned due to the anger that has been created in Catalonia since the attacks,” said Santiago Espot, a separatist activist facing trial for organized jeering of King Felipe VI at a soccer match in 2015. “This week is going to be an important test of their commitment.”
As well as the referendum bill, lawmakers may also consider a second draft law that would provide the legal foundations for new state institutions — a tax and social-security agency, a supreme court, and a central bank.
Passing either of those laws would probably trigger an immediate response from Madrid, with the government prepared to ask the Constitutional Court to revoke the legislation as a minimum. Esteban Duarte, Bloomberg
