Renato Marques
It is not new that the falling birth rate in Macau and its consequences of turning our society into a super-aged one (over 20% of the population is aged 65 or above) by 2029 have been a source of concern for the local government.
Even before Sam Hou Fai took office, the topic was already widely discussed, but after late 2024, it seemed to become urgent.
Not wanting to fall for the easy joke about the form that the Chief Executive chose to address the matter in the 2025 policy address, my purpose is to narrow down the issue to its roots.
Why are people in Macau not making babies anymore, or at least not making enough babies?
While the government’s approach has been pretty much the expected one, including random calls for “more natality” and the casual “subsidy” that tends to help a little in some cases, the fact is that there is no subsidy capable of addressing the “structural problem.”
People in Macau (in general) struggle (a lot) to rent an apartment with adequate living conditions, let alone the almost-impossible task of acquiring one.
I recall a statement by a local doctor and a representative of the Portuguese community on a TV program who said something like, “Nowadays, no one in Macau living off an honest job can afford to buy a house.”
The statement hit deep, as I felt the same way. There is simply no possibility of saving enough money from your work to be able to get enough for even a down payment.
Some local youngsters are lucky enough to have parents who accumulated some good savings from earlier days and can put those resources toward helping them, at least with the down payment.
Still, they will be on the razor’s edge for an extended period of their lives until they manage to stabilize their mortgage payments and pray every day that nothing happens to their jobs or to the economy in general that would cause a landslide.
Making a simple calculation: even if a 25-year-old couple manages all this help and “divine providence” to get a house after some good 15 to 20 years of mortgage struggles, they are 40 to 45. Are they at the right age to think about having an extended family? Maybe they can have a child, but it is unlikely they will consider having more than one.
But, again, this is just the math. There is another issue that I personally believe is even more important when addressing the birth rate of any country or region – the hope rate.
The “hope rate” has been defined as the gap between desired children and achieved children and, according to experts, is closely related to economic anxiety (cost of living, childcare), career focus, and uncertainty about the world (climate change, war).
While people often want or wish to have children, falling birth rates reflect societal barriers and a crisis of hope, where the desire for family clashes with perceived inability or fear.
As several figures, including the late Pope Francis, have previously highlighted, falling birth rates signal not just economic shifts but also a potential erosion of societal optimism.
What is the level of optimism in the population of Macau? Are we optimistic about a better tomorrow? What have successive governments done to address this issue?
The answer is precisely in the current birth rate!
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