UM lowers GDP growth forecast to 16.8%

The University of Macau (UM) has revised its economic projection on the SAR, predicting a growth of 16.8% to MOP415.3 billion (equivalent to 94.5% of the 2019 levels) for this year.

Based on the latest economic data in 2024, the research team anticipates the economic slowdown in mainland China will have a relatively small impact on Macau and has, therefore, revised the projected number of visitor arrivals from mainland China to be 90% of the 2019 level.

The revised baseline forecasts for other major economic variables include the growth of exports of services, which is projected to be 23.4%; as well as the overall unemployment rate, which is expected to be 2.2%.

“The unemployment rate of Macau residents is expected to be 2.8%; and the government current revenue is estimated to reach MOP100.2 billion,” according to the report.

Late last year, UM said Macau’s economy is forecasted to experience significant growth of up to 21.0% in 2024, driven by diversification efforts.

The initial Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2024 anticipates an increase in service exports between 10.3% and 26.7%, potentially resulting in government revenues between approximately MOP95.3 billion and MOP109.6 billion.

Meanwhile, in January and February 2024, total visitor arrivals reached 6.16 million, representing 88.3% of the 2019 level.