Based on a series of factors, the Macau Economic Association (MEA) has estimated that the city’s Prosperity Index will be dissatisfactory between June and August.
Justifying the estimates, the MEA cited the change of modes of tourism and spending as key factors having a significant impact on the index.
It pointed out that the structure of tourist arrivals has seen a transformation. Recently, nearly 40% of tourists in the city have been from Zhuhai, meaning their need for overnight hotel stays was small, the association explained.
Worse still was that 70% of the city’s tourists were not staying overnight.
Meanwhile, there were 8% more tourists in Macau in the first quarter of this year than the same quarter last year. However, the city’s retail revenue slipped downward by 0.6% year-over-year, while gross gambling revenue (GGR) plunged by 24.8%.
Although March tourist arrival counts were better than the previous month, it accounted for only about 20% of pre-Covid levels, with metrics such as GGR, casino operators’ stock prices and hotel occupancy declining as a result.
Internally, the city is faced with a falling trajectory of consumer confidence in mainland China. In April, the mainland recorded a Consumer Confidence Index that was 28.6% lower than the same month last year. The index this April stood at 86.7 points. It fell by 23.4%, even when compared with the March index this year.
The April index was the lowest since the first wave of Covid-19 outbreak in early 2020.
Furthermore, the city’s M2 money supply has recorded a six-month continuous fall. Compared with April last year, the city saw MOP24.2 billion less in M2 money supply in April this year. The supply of the US dollar fell by 21.5%.
The fall in M2 puts this criterion within the dissatisfactory level for the first time.
The city’s unemployment rate, which recently retained a 10-year low of 4.5%, is seeing no improvement whatsoever.
According to the MEA, the only criteria recording better conditions were cargo import and consumption prices.
With this said, it is unclear whether the city will face stagflation soon.
Externally, the MEA pointed out, the city is experiencing the impact of serious inflation in developed economies, tighter monetary policies, unsettled geopolitical conditions and global economic slowdown, among other factors.
The Prosperity Indices for April and May, meanwhile, have been confirmed as 2.0 and 2.1 respectively.
