According to a study by the Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau (SMG), Macau’s average sea level could rise by a staggering 64 centimetres (2.1 feet) by the end of this century, between 2081 and 2100.
The study, based on the latest models developed by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), presents five possible scenarios for climate change, depending on the emission levels of greenhouse gases.
Even under the intermediate scenario, local sea levels could rise between 31 and 64 centimetres (1-2.1 feet). This poses significant implications for many low-lying areas of Macau already prone to flooding.
“The rise in sea level is expected to exacerbate the impact of astronomical tides and storm surges in Macau,” the SMG statement said.
The city can also anticipate more extreme rainstorms and severe weather events because of climate change.
Under the intermediate scenario, Macau’s annual rainfall and annual maximum daily precipitation are projected to increase 8.3% and 5.8% respectively between 2041 and 2060, compared to averages recorded from 1995 to 2014.
As Macau grapples with the impending threat, the government has acknowledged the need for action.
In February 2023, the Secretary for Transport and Public Works, Raimundo do Rosário, expressed doubts about the feasibility of initial plans to construct a tidal retention gate and 1.5-meter-high walls around the Inner Harbour to mitigate flood risks.
However, the reluctance stems from a desire to maintain the coastal appeal for tourists and residents.
Experts said a multi-faceted approach is necessary to address this global challenge.
Faith Chan, a professor at the University of Nottingham in Ningbo, said even reclaimed lands are not immune to the combined dangers of sea level rise, storm tides and extreme weather events.
Shi Huabin, a researcher from the University of Macau, cautioned against expecting a single, perfect engineering solution, stressing the need for community preparedness and individual actions in managing regular flood events.
As the world grapples with the consequences of climate change, Macau faces a critical juncture.
The city must balance its economic interests with the urgent need to adapt to the changing climate and protect its residents from the looming threat of rising seas.
With planning, innovative solutions, and a commitment to sustainability, Macau can strive to safeguard its future in the face of this global challenge. Nadia Shaw
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