Analysts expect April to be another ‘flat’ month on GGR

Senior analyst for Global Gaming at investment research company Seaport Research Partners, Vitaly Umansky, noted in a report on Tuesday that the firm expects another “flat” month in April regarding gross gaming revenue (GGR).

The analyst said the company expects April GGR to be flat, with a year-on-year drop of 0.1% and a 5.8% month-on-month decline, respectively.

The brokerage justified the month-on-month decline as “in line with a historical average of -5.1%,” remarking, “Our April estimate is slightly impacted by near-term potential headwinds from the recent money changers crackdown.”

Despite the perceived low results during the first half (H1) of this year, which, for the time being, resulted in accumulated growth for the first quarter (Q1) of just 0.6%, Seaport forecasts that the casino results will improve slightly at the end of H1 (to a 2.2% growth) and will perform even better in the second half of the year with an estimated 6.5% growth for the year.

On the other hand, analysts from JP Morgan, DS Kim, Selina Li, and Mufan Shi have remarked in their latest note that despite March’s perceived poor results (namely when compared with the government forecast), the month scored 1% above JP Morgan’s forecast. However, it is still considered an essentially flat month.

As the Times reported yesterday, the Secretary for Economy and Finance, Anton Tai, admitted that sector revenues have not been as optimistic as the former government expected, stating that the local casinos are yet to reach the target of MOP20 billion per month, suggested by former Secretary Lei Wai Nong in the preliminary budget for 2025.

JP Morgan noted that March closed with a daily average of around MOP634 million, revealing the trend observed in the first two months of this year.

The same analysts revealed an optimistic outlook, noting March results as “pretty respectable despite being a seasonally slow month,” adding that improving performance is expected to gain momentum during Q2.

“Growth is expected to improve into the second half of 2025, given easier comparisons from June onwards, and we maintain our 2025 GGR growth forecast of 3%, to be led by 0 to 1% in the first half, versus 5 to 6% in the second half.”