Macau consumer confidence rises in two areas, economy declines: survey

The “Macau Consumer Confidence Index” survey for the first quarter of this year indicates that while consumer confidence in “buying a home” and “investing in stocks” has increased, confidence in the “local economy” continues to decline, along with a 0.76% drop in confidence regarding “employment conditions.”

The survey – conducted by the Institute for Sustainable Development at the Macau University of Science and Technology (MUST) in the first half of last month – involved 818 Macau residents aged 18 and older, and was jointly organized with Capital University of Economics and Business, Central University of Finance and Economics, City University of Hong Kong, and Fu Jen Catholic University in Taiwan.

The index rating scale ranges from 0 to 200, with scores below 100 indicating “not confident” and those above 100 indicating “confident.”

For Q1, the city’s overall consumer confidence index reached 103.82 – a 0.85% increase from 102.94 in the previous quarter and an 8.5% rise from 94.97 in the same period last year. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter the index has remained in the “confident” range, signifying what researchers call a “robust foundation” of consumer sentiment.

Confidence rose notably in areas related to property purchases and stock market expectations. The “buying a home” sub-index climbed 2.41% from the previous quarter, reaching 100.22 – just above the “confident” threshold.

This figure also reflects a 12.31% increase from 87.88 in the same period last year. Meanwhile, the “stock investment” sub-index hit 112.37, a significant 16.68% jump from 108.53 in the previous quarter.

However, four of the six sub-indices used to calculate the overall index posted declines. These sub-indices – “employment,” “price level,” “local economy,” and “standard of living” – scored 103.39, 98.02, 100.61, and 108.30 respectively, with quarter-on-quarter changes ranging from 0.21% to 3.14%. Notably, the “local economy” sub-index dropped 10.97% year-on-year, down from 111.65, reflecting mounting uncertainty and expectations of an economic slowdown.

The “local economy” index has now fallen for three consecutive quarters, underscoring the need for a cautious outlook given the risks and challenges in the current economic environment.

The report also highlights broader concerns. It noted that the global external environment has become increasingly complex, with the momentum of world economic growth continuing to weaken.

There are significant disparities in performance among major economies and rising uncertainty related to inflation and monetary policy adjustments. Although mainland China’s economy remains stable, the report stresses an urgent need to boost domestic demand.

In a broader regional context, the survey shows that in the first quarter, mainland China’s overall consumer confidence index rose 2.9% year-on-year to 100.62. In contrast, Hong Kong’s index remained unchanged from the previous quarter at 84.2, while Taiwan’s stood at 86.72. Yuki Lei