Animal Farm | Written in water!

Albano Martins

1.The end of the contracts of the two Portuguese legal advisors to the Legislative Assembly came with a justification that was at the time presented by the President of the Legislative Assembly. This justification was used by some local people who decided to speak “off the record” – although it would have been better not to have said anything – for not giving a hand to help the two jurists stay in Macau; to these lawyers who are known to have a wealth of experience in these lands, and are considered excellent professionals. Afterwards came the announcement of the recruitment in December of a new Portuguese advisor just arrived to Macau, and another one more recently. What do these series of facts demonstrate exactly?

First, that none of this is good, ethical, or fair; it lacks truth and is not going to improve the AL’s performance. Therefore, it is hardly a progressive step for the business of legislation.

Second, that the present or future interests of some people come first. The President of the AL may be the future Chief Executive, so we have to be cautious! But of what exactly?

If this hypothetical scenario of an election were out of the question, it may just be that the position of some people would have been diametrically opposed.

Lastly, interests come before ethical values, which are put aside. A misery, simply a misery!

2. Let’s talk about Macau’s inflation.

According to what one can read in the local press, it was 3.01 percent in 2018.

I recall that in December, even before the end of the year, I said: “… it [the inflation] proved to be much more congenial than common sense informs. It will hardly exceed 3.01 percent! (…)”!

In 2019 it should be close to 2.93 percentage points. A local university suggests 3.9 percent for 2019, and had forecast 3.3 percent for 2018, while still reporting 8.3 percent of GDP growth in 2018 and 7.1 in 2019!

I think these theoreticians do the wrong thing, which is not, as you know, the first time they are caught up in these writing exercises in the sky.

So, for me, CPI growth will be less, but this will not occur immediately in the early part of the year.

No, in those first months we should still see an increase in inflation (measured by the average variation of the last twelve months) and only after May will we begin to see it fall.

This is a result of the process of calculating inflation, not from a special capacity of mine to forecast!

January’s figure for inflation should close at 3.11 percentage points or a maximum of 3.12 percent!

This is not gambling.

This is mathematics!