Bernstein predicts gaming revenue to fall up to 95% this month

Brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein is expecting Macau’s gross gaming revenue to plunge as much as 95% year-on-year in April.
According to the analysts, the city recorded some 850 million patacas of gaming revenue in the first 13 days of April, with a month-to-date average daily rate of 66 million patacas.
Last April, the city’s gross gaming revenue amounted to approximately 23.6 billion patacas.
“Month-to-date average daily rate is down 92 percent compared to April 2019,” said analysts Vitaly Umansky, Eunice Lee and Kelsey Zhu, as cited in a note seen by GGRAsia.
The current pandemic outbreak and border restrictions between Macau and its neighboring cities have brought about a negative impact on gaming revenue.
“We estimate VIP has been stronger than mass, with revenue driven by a very small number of players, with lower than normal hold in VIP and significant volatility,” the brokerage added.
For the eight-day period ending April 13, the daily average was estimated to be just 44 million patacas.
During the Easter break weekend, tourist arrivals hit a record low as the city recorded only 810 arrivals, plunging 99.8% compared to the same holiday period in 2019.
Meanwhile, according to Sanford Bernstein’s analysts, gaming operators and other Macau-based contacts to which it had spoken “do not see any clarity on the timing of recovery [for improvement of the visa situation].”
“We expect [gross gaming revenue] to pick up again in May/June with loosening travel restrictions, but any strong near-term recovery is unlikely,” said the team.
The SAR continues to face a decline in its tourist arrivals as visitors from its number one source market are mostly prevented from traveling to the region due to the Central Government’s suspension of the individual visit scheme and Guangdong’s requirement that all arrivals, even its own residents, must undergo a 14-day quarantine. LV