Birth-rate decline sparks concerns over teacher unemployment

The declining birth rate in Macau has raised concerns among Legislative Assembly (AL) members about potential teacher unemployment, with Vong Kuoc Ieng, vice president of the Chinese Educators Association of Macau, acknowledging that frontline educators are understandably anxious about the implications.

The birth rate in Macau is projected to decline significantly in 2026, with official data indicating that only 2,871 babies were born last year, a decrease of 600 compared to the previous year.

In light of the current situation for educators in Macau, a self-identified education professional recently took to social media to express concern for friends pursuing education-related studies, warning that many teachers may face unemployment beginning next year in what they described as an era of significant regression.

Speaking to the Times, a primary school teacher, surnamed Wing, candidly expressed her concerns about the impact of the declining birth rate on the education sector.

“Although the current situation hasn’t significantly affected our work yet, if the birth rate continues to drop, it could create a sense of crisis,” she said. Wing also noted that some colleagues have already begun pursuing additional degrees to enhance their competitiveness, stressing that this trend warrants attention.

As a frontline educator, Vong, also the principal of Escola Choi Nong Chi Tai, noted in an interview with the Times that enrollment trends in Macau have raised widespread concern.

He stated, “In recent years, the phenomenon of shrinking classes has become increasingly evident, particularly at the early childhood education level.”

Some schools’ K1 classes currently have fewer students than anticipated, with actual enrollment figures ranging from single digits to just over a dozen. The situation for K2 is similarly troubling, with only about 20 students enrolled, while K3 classes have over 30. Vong emphasized that, especially after the Covid-19 pandemic, the annual birth rate has decreased by three to four hundred compared to the previous year, putting schools under constant pressure to reduce class sizes.

He said that teachers’ concerns stem from the ongoing decline in birth rates. Facing the potential for continued stagnation, primary school classes for grades one, two, and three may become even sparser.

“Although some educators have chosen to leave their positions, the proportion of departures remains low, and the overall attrition rate is not severe,” he stated.

Vong stated that it is challenging to quantify the exact number of teachers being reduced, as specific class arrangements and resulting staffing changes are typically finalized only after the academic year concludes.

However, he pointed out that, in recent years, the number of students enrolling in teacher education programs has significantly decreased.

“About seven or eight years ago, the government encouraged outstanding students to enroll in teacher education programs and provided scholarships. However, the government’s stance has shifted, gradually reducing support and encouragement for these programs. Authorities have even advised students to ‘avoid teacher training if possible,’ due to concerns about graduates’ employment prospects after graduation,” he explained.

According to Vong, both school administrators and teachers are expressing growing unease about the future of the educational environment, with many educators voicing their concerns on social media. While acknowledging some government policies aimed at addressing these issues, he is calling for more concrete and actionable measures.

Short-term recommendations include reducing class sizes to between 23 and 28 students, which would free up enrollment spots, facilitate smaller classes, and enhance educational quality.

The educator also suggested that preschool class sizes could be moderately increased to ensure teacher stability and reduce attrition rates.

For medium to long-term planning, he emphasized the need for the government to develop effective strategies to boost birth rates.

Drawing on successful examples from countries like Singapore, he proposed implementing incentives and extended birth allowance programs, up to 12 years, to encourage young families to have children.

However, he opposed proposals to bring in mainland Chinese students, insisting that the focus should remain on improving local birth rates and family conditions rather than relying on external factors.

“The goal must be to increase our own birth rate, not to depend on bringing in mainland students, as this does not address the fundamental problem. The lack of young people will affect social productivity and healthy development,” Vong reiterated, stressing that amidst the challenges of an aging population, young people are vital for social development.

Amid teachers’ concerns, Vong expressed hope that educators will reflect on their career planning and professional development during this transition. As society increasingly promotes inclusive education, he emphasized the importance of teachers proactively adapting to and addressing the numerous challenges within the current education system.

Challenge of introducing AI in education

At the same time, Macau is facing challenges due to an economic downturn, raising questions about its competitiveness.

As calls for urban transformation grow louder, the government has proposed various policy directions – such as developing the “big health” sector and promoting cultural tourism – yet the public remains unclear about the specifics and progress of these initiatives. This confusion has led to deep reflection among young people, while the education sector has pointed out that government policies often lack concrete operational details.

Taking the Education and Youth Development Bureau’s (DSEDJ) earlier announcement of launching a localized smart teaching service platform in the 2026/2027 academic year as an example, Vong pointed out that while the platform exists, teachers may not effectively utilize its resources.

“Establishing an AI sharing platform would be a significant help for teachers, especially as many feel uncertain about how to apply AI. This platform could provide extensive shared resources,” he stated. This concern reflects the pressure felt by many educators who are unsure how to integrate AI into their instruction.

Consequently, teacher training becomes crucial for enabling educators to effectively use AI and enhance their professional competence, while students also need to learn how to appropriately utilize AI in the educational process.

Vong pointed out that the platforms currently established by the government are imperfect, often experiencing crashes and resource shortages.

He expressed hope for the gradual enrichment and improvement of the database, emphasizing the need for it to be more accessible to teachers and equipped with practical information and support.

The educator believes the government should first establish a clear direction and framework to track technological trends, as well as allocate special funds for the education sector to facilitate essential investments.

Meanwhile, AI and programming have emerged as significant trends in education, with the potential to greatly enhance efficiency while fostering students’ creativity and critical thinking skills.

“When effectively utilized, AI can transform the learning experience,” Vong remarked. Future classrooms are anticipated to emphasize collective intelligence, group collaboration, and interactive learning – demands that could elevate educational standards and catalyze a transformative shift in pedagogy.

“While the standardization of AI in education will face numerous challenges, the demand for effective integration remains undeniable,” he noted. For him, this evolution in teaching methodologies aims to cultivate a more engaged and capable student body, preparing them to navigate the complexities of a rapidly changing world.

Looking ahead, the educator said there is significant growth potential in the fields of information technology and AI. He noted the difficulty of recruiting IT professionals, including at international schools, due to their high mobility and job availability.

“The overall demand for technology talent in society is constantly increasing, and Macau faces the same challenge. In this context, the government should consider encouraging outstanding graduates to pursue IT or AI-related majors, helping them lay a solid foundation for the future,” he concluded.