Casino revenue surpasses expectations in April

Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in April exceeded market expectations and historical trends, according to industry analysts. The region reported MOP18.55 billion in GGR for the month, a 26% increase from the previous year, despite a 4.9% month-on-month decline.

“The 1.7% sequential contraction per day was better than historical trends, as the average sequential decline in April, relative to March, over the 2013 to 2019 period, was -4.1 %,” said Carlo Santarelli, an analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

JP Morgan also noted that April’s tally surpassed GGR expectations. According to the analysts, “GGR grew 26% year-on-year to MOP18.5 billion in April, implying a daily run-rate of MOP618 million and a 79% recovery versus pre-Covid levels, above the 75% recovery rate in fourth-quarter 2023 and first-quarter 2024.”

The positive performance was driven by strong recovery in Macau’s mass-market segment, which JP Morgan estimated had reached over 110% of pre-Covid levels. In contrast, the VIP segment remained at around 25% of its pre-pandemic levels.

Looking ahead, Deutsche Bank forecasts May GGR in Macau to reach just under USD2.45 billion, representing a 2% monthly sequential increase per day, compared to the 2.6% average seen in previous Mays.

The April results bring Macau’s total GGR for the first four months of 2024 to MOP75.87 billion, up 53.7% year-on-year and equivalent to 76.1% of pre-pandemic levels seen in the same period of 2019.

Brokerage CLSA recently revised upwards its 2024 GGR forecast for Macau, estimating a full year tally of USD30.3 billion due to higher visitation trends in traditionally slower months. If accurate, the updated projection would see Macau’s GGR growing by 34% year-on-year from USD22.8 billion in 2023.

Citigroup’s monthly survey of Macau’s premium mass gaming tables indicated that player quality remained robust in April. However, the institution noted that Macau GGR in April was likely generated by fewer “premium-mass players” compared to previous months, due to the timing of the Labour Day holidays on the Chinese mainland, Macau’s primary source of tourism. Staff Reporter