Casinos slash mass bets to capture business from closed satellite venues

[Photo: Melissaandre Denize]

Macau’s concessionaires appear to be cutting minimum bets in mass-market baccarat to capture business from the city’s now-defunct satellite casinos, according to a Citigroup survey that detected a slight month-on-month drop in average bet sizes.

Citi analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau reported in their December betting survey that the average mass baccarat minimum bet across Macau fell by 3% from November to HKD2,058, despite a 4% year-on-year rise.

Citi analysts attributed the sequential weakening to competition for market share vacated by the shuttered satellites.

“Since October, we have seen casinos opening new areas with notably lower minimum bets, as low as HKD300,” the analysts wrote in their memo. The casino properties cited by Citi include StarWorld, City of Dreams, Wynn Macau, and Casino Lisboa.

Three of these are located in downtown Macau, the historic hub for most satellites.

Citi analysts observed crowds in these new low-stakes areas during site visits and expect Sands Macao – Sands China Ltd.’s sole peninsula property – to soon join the trend.

The satellite closures stem from the year-end expiry of a three-year transition period under Macau’s revised gaming law. The last satellite venue, Casino Landmark, is set to close Dec. 30, marking the end of Macau’s decades-long satellite-casino model.

SJM Holdings Ltd previously operated most satellites.

The concessionaire recently revamped its Crystal Palace gaming zone at Casino Lisboa to recapture market share once held by those venues. Still, Citigroup analysts cautioned, “How much market share SJM will eventually be able to defend remains to be seen.”

Premium Mass Shows Strength

In contrast, Macau’s premium-mass baccarat – bets typically between HKD10,000 and HKD100,000 – posted robust gains. According to Citi’s December survey, Sands China Ltd. reclaimed the “pole position” with a 29% market share.

Analysts attributed this to high-profile concerts, like Cantopop star Alan Tam’s show at The Venetian Macao, which boosted foot traffic on the date analysts conducted site checks.

Citi crowned a HKD900,000 ($115,500) wager at The Londoner Macao as “player of the month,” while Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd took second place in the survey with a 21% share and eight “whales” – bettors at HKD100,000 or more – at Galaxy Macau.

“Both player quantity and quality improved,” the analysts noted, crediting Macau’s appeal as a “total experience” for affluent mainland Chinese, blending gaming with concerts, suites, and side bets.

Citi observed that premium-mass wagers in December hit HKD12.6 million, up 18% year-on-year, with 534 players (up 5%), implying a 13% rise in the average bet to HKD23,654.

Looking Ahead: 2026 Projections and Cautions

In its prior memo, Citi forecast 2026 GGR growth of 6% to MOP263.5 billion ($33.3 billion), fueled by expanded concerts, more hotel suites, and premium-player strength.

Sands China and Wynn Macau stand out for market-share gains, per analysts Choi and Chau, thanks to entertainment venues like The Londoner Arena and Venetian Arena. Visitation and per-capita spending should rise with easier suite access and live shows boosting non-gaming revenue.

The analysts also anticipate that new supply will sharpen competition: Wynn Palace’s Chairman’s Club in Q1 2026, MGM China’s 60 suites in H2, and Melco Resorts’ Countdown Hotel revamp in Q3.

Citi analysts previously projected that Sands China Ltd. and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd. will hold leading gross gaming revenue and EBITDA positions in 2026. Their edge stems from hosting large-scale entertainment events at venues such as The Londoner Arena and Venetian Arena, which provide structural advantages as concerts drive demand.

Citi also anticipates minor gross gaming revenue dips in Macau during the FIFA World Cup period.

The bank estimates the city may generate only MOP19 billion in June, a 10% year-on-year decline, and MOP21 billion in July, down 5%. Historical patterns show major football tournaments divert betting interest away from Macau, though growth is expected to normalize afterward.