Citi: Gaming EBITDA to recover 80% on pre-pandemic in Q3

Macau’s gaming EBITDA is forecast to recover to about 80% of pre-Covid-19 levels in the third quarter of this year, according to Citi Research.

This is despite China’s weakening economy affecting casinos over the past few months, which has caused price wars targeting player incentives and also impacted luxury spending. Analysts have however stated there is a “weak correlation” between China’s gross domestic product and Macau’s mass gross gaming revenue growth potential.

Citi Research believed that the industry still has a lot of room for revenue growth in 2024 and that the fundamentals still offer long-term value. 

The institution expected Macau’s GGR to grow 19% year-on-year to MOP216 billion in 2024, premised on Macau’s visitor arrivals recovering to 85% of the pre-Covid-19 level, the same as that in 3Q23. Gaming expense per player needs to remain at the same level as 2023, with a slight increase in the time spent in Macau, the analysts said,

Meanwhile, UBS mentioned in a research note that Macau’s GGR amounted to MOP16 billion in November 2023, translating to a daily run-rate of MOP535 million, in line with market consensus, and recovering to 70% of the corresponding 2019 level. 

The average price for hotel guest rooms in Macau for late December has been increased to HKD3,800 per night, from HKD2,600 per night in November, powered primarily by seasonality and non-gaming events, the report added. UBS remained upbeat on the gaming sector, and selected Galaxy as its top pick. LV