Citi upholds GGR forecast for August at MOP20 billion

Data from the first four days of the month indicates that gross gaming revenue (GGR) may reach MOP2.5 billion, representing a daily run-rate of MOP625 million, according to industry sources cited in a Citi Research report.

This marks a 7% increase compared to the daily average of MOP585 million recorded in the final 10 days of July.

The Public Security Police Force reported that the number of tourists entering the region surpassed 20 million from the beginning of the year to last Saturday – reaching that milestone two months earlier than in 2022.

This influx of visitors is translating to stronger gaming revenues across both the VIP and mass market segments.

While VIP GGR saw a modest 3-5% monthly decline, mass market GGR gained 2-4% month-over-month, the report stated.

Importantly, the VIP hold rate also appears to be slightly above normal levels, further bolstering the overall figures.

Citi Research has conservatively maintained its forecast of MOP20 billion in Macau’s August GGR, which would represent 82% of the same period in 2019 – before the Covid-19 pandemic devastated the gaming hub’s economy.

Recently, analysts expressed cautious optimism for August’s GGR after July’s figures fell short of expectations, as July recorded some MOP18.6 billion, reflecting a modest 5.1% increase from June but significantly below historical performance levels.

The casino industry experienced a disappointing month in July, with GGR failing to meet market expectations, according to analysts.

For August, Deutsche Bank forecasts GGR to reach nearly USD2.4 billion (MOP19.1 billion), reflecting a 3% increase in daily revenue compared to July.

Seaport Research Partners is slightly more optimistic, projecting that GGR could hit approximately USD2.47 billion (MOP19.6 billion), a 6.7% rise from July and over 15% higher than August 2023.