Consumer prices show mixed signals in September

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September presents a complex inflationary picture, with year-on-year prices rising 0.59% but experiencing a slight month-on-month decline of 0.09%, according to the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC). This data indicates an average CPI growth of 0.98% over the past twelve months, reflecting a moderate inflationary environment.

Significant increases in specific categories contributed to annual growth. Notably, miscellaneous goods and services rose 2.74%, followed by recreation and culture at 1.76% and health at 1.67%. Additionally, increased costs were observed at dining outlets and petrol stations, where higher liquid petroleum gas prices contributed to a rise in food and non-alcoholic beverages, which increased 0.89%. Sectors such as transport and household furnishings experienced declines of 3.51% and 0.5%, respectively, indicating tightening consumer spending in those areas.

Comparing September to August, the slight decrease in CPI was primarily influenced by decreases in transport prices, which fell 2.25%, largely due to reduced airfares and package tour costs following the summer season.

Clothing and footwear also saw a decrease of 0.92%. However, price increases for miscellaneous goods and services (+1.13%) and education (+0.54%) helped cushion the overall decline.

For the third quarter of 2024, the average composite CPI increased 0.72% year-on-year, while the first nine months of the year recorded an average rise of 0.89%. The CPI-A and CPI-B indices, which represent different household expenditure ranges, also showed modest increases of 0.9% and 1.08% respectively.

DSEC compiles three separate CPI series to reflect varying impacts on households based on their spending patterns. The composite CPI encompasses all households, with significant weightings given to housing and fuels (33.75%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (27.94%), and transport (7.84%). Nadia Shaw