According to JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd, Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first four days of February is estimated to be MOP2.5 billion, averaging MOP625 million per day.
This figure is comparable to January’s strong performance of MOP624 million, which is impressive considering the pre-holiday seasonality leading up to the Lunar New Year.
Compared to pre-Covid 2019 levels, the 2023 National Day holiday saw a 72% recovery in revenue and an 87% recovery in visitation. Analysts noted that hotels under Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment Group are expected to perform better, with ADRs tracking 50% higher than last October’s Golden Week and 30% higher than the 2019 Lunar New Year.
In January, Macau’s casino GGR increased by 67% year-on-year to MOP19.34 billion. The JP Morgan analysts noted that the GGR in the first four days of February indicated a recovery in mass-market GGR to over 110% of pre-COVID levels, while VIP gaming likely remained at around mid-20s-percent of recovery.
The analysts also observed a healthy level of pre-booked gaming patrons for comped rooms during the Lunar New Year holiday, with the expectation of a daily GGR print of over MOP650 million during the 8-day holiday period, representing an approximate recovery of 120% in mass GGR compared to 2019.
GGRAsia’s checks revealed that many luxury hotels in Macau’s casino resorts had no rooms available to the public for any nights during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday.
JP Morgan’s outlook assumes that mass GGR will remain at current levels (112% of pre-COVID levels) throughout Financial Year 2024, with margins staying relatively flat from the fourth quarter of 2023.
Citigroup recently raised its February GGR forecast for Macau to MOP19.5 billion, expecting a run-rate acceleration to around MOP900 million per day from Feb. 12 to Feb. 17, the last six days of the Lunar New Year holiday period.