Our Desk | Breaking up is hard to do

Vanessa Moore

It’s not only teenagers and twentysomethings who like to post their relationship status on Facebook. Countries are doing it too. Last week’s Scottish referendum caught the attention of parodists who creatively penned an imaginary status update over the weekend for the Highland nation. The fictitious social network exchange read as follows:
Scotland went from being “it’s complicated” to “in a relationship”. Ireland commented, “U guys sort it out?” with England responding, “Yes :-)” and Scotland adding “Not really”. Neighbouring Wales posted, “This is awkward”, and the USA added a brief “lol” at the end. Even though China wasn’t included (the Great Firewall would stop that), I wondered what would Beijing say? Most probably, “No comment”. And here’s why.
China offered no official statement on Edinburgh’s plebiscite. Despite historical precedent leaning towards breakup and a knife-edge vote, the ballot somewhat remarkably ended with the majority choosing to stay in the union. Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei refused to comment, stating the usual Beijing rubric of it being another country’s internal affairs. Obviously it takes no satirist to imagine those in the highest echelons of the Communist party finding it completely incomprehensible that such a vote was permitted at all.
The Chinese are fond of metaphors, and the old English adage “People in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones” certainly fits the situation. The shadow of secessionism looms large in the People’s Republic. The thought of parallels being drawn between China’s own independence movements and the UK’s breakaway republics for sure had those in Zhongnanhai in a sweat. A “Yes” vote transplanted to China could inspire its own restive regions to follow suit: Beijing is wary of comparisons between Scotland and Xinjiang, Tibet and Taiwan, Hong Kong and even Macau. In fact Chinese officials saw the Scottish referendum as a sign of the UK’s weakness and cautioned against similar calls in their own backyard. So even mentioning Scotland in the same sentence as Taiwan and Hong Kong was a definite no-go.
For both SARs, popular referenda have certainly been on the political agenda of late. Even though prospects are bleak for the introduction of universal suffrage and equal voting rights, that didn’t stop the activists of Occupy Central or Macau Conscience holding their own unofficial polls. Chasing the referendum following his own local efforts, campaigner Jason Chao even went so far as to travel to Scotland last week to witness the vote.
Of course comparing how things are done in a democratic country to a communist dictatorship is perhaps fallacious; however the difference in how calls for independence are treated is a good litmus test of power. The weak will always fear a split. The strong will embrace it. Illustrative of an authoritarian culture, it’s impossible for China to grasp that giving its citizens the freedom to choose could precisely result in it getting its desired outcome – them actually wishing to stay.
But a word of caution first. Liberty is an entrenched belief. Devolution has been an on-going process in the UK where centralised powers have gradually been seceded to local authorities, now with the promise of even more to come. Without these initial steps the referendum definitely wouldn’t have had the same outcome. Britain has experience in dealing with separatist movements dating from its colonial era to conflict in Northern Ireland. In this respect, for Hong Kong and Macau the SAR system has been a boon. But ask a Tibetan or a Uighur how autonomous their regions are and the answer is quite a different story.
In both Macau and Hong Kong the pro-government and business camps wield huge influence. Given the chance to pick their own Chief Executives, who knows, conceivably both could end up choosing Beijing-friendly leaders anyway. Edinburgh’s choice not only demonstrates that it’s possible to decide a complicated political issue without resorting to the threat of violence, but that the voters may even choose to keep the status quo. The point is they should get to do so unhindered.
As Scotland’s real-life status shows, breaking up is hard to do. Beijing would do well to remember that in future.