Macau’s economy is forecasted to experience significant growth of between 8.3% and 21.0% in 2024, driven by diversification efforts.
The University of Macau’s (UM) Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2024 anticipates an increase in service exports between 10.3% and 26.7%, potentially resulting in government revenues between approximately MOP95.3 billion and MOP109.6 billion.
Recovery in visitor arrivals became apparent in 2023, particularly with Hong Kong arrivals reaching 5.95 million between January and October 2023 (accounting for 97.1% of 2019 figures in the same period).
Mainland visitor arrivals reached 15.32 million between January and October 2023, or 64.4% of the 2019 figures.
Under optimistic projections – assuming no major public health-related disruptions to Macau’s social operations – the UM research team predicts that mainland visitor arrivals in 2024 may return 2019 levels.
A more conservative estimate foresees a 5% increase in mainland visitor arrivals over 2023 numbers for 2024.
Despite strategic government initiatives for economic diversification, which focus on transforming Macau into a global tourism and leisure hub, the UM expects Macau to face uncertainties over the impact of mainland China’s economic development in 2024.
Challenges in the real estate market, as well as local government and corporate debt, may potentially affect residents’ income, leading to decreased interest and purchasing power for travel to Macau.
An October forecast by the International Monetary Fund shows that global economic growth will slow from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023, further declining to 2.9% in 2024. Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to experience a modest decline in growth, from 4.1% in 2022 down to 4.0% in both 2023 and 2024.
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