Rafaela Dancygier, Princeton University
Earlier this spring, the European Parliament voted to overhaul its immigration policy to more evenly distribute responsibility among member states for managing the arrival of migrants and asylum-seekers. The agreement includes provisions for payments to third countries to block asylum-seekers and preliminary plans for mass deportations. Clearly, the EU’s dominant parties are responding to the rise of anti-immigrant, populist right-wing parties, which made significant gains in the June 2024 EU Parliament elections.
While the strategy of appearing tough on immigration might seem attractive to established parties, as scholars of comparative politics and political behavior, we believe it won’t return many votes. A commonly overlooked factor in the rise of the radical right is emigration, or the movement of people out of a region or country.
Our research found a relationship between out-migration and increased votes for populist radical right parties in 28 European countries during the mid-2010s. Younger generations leave the countryside for metropolitan areas seeking better opportunities, a trend especially prevalent in Spain and Italy. Similarly, counties across the United States are experiencing population loss due to low fertility and out-migration. While the economic ramifications of this population flight are well-known, its impact on voters is less explored.
The case of Sweden illustrates how out-migration can benefit radical right populists. From 2000 to 2020, Sweden’s immigrant population increased from 11% to nearly 20%, while over half of all municipalities experienced population decline. Long dominated by centrist and center-left politics, Sweden is now witnessing a partisan shift. The Social Democratic Party has seen a gradual decline, while the anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats have gained significant ground, now holding a fifth of the seats in Parliament.
Our research found growing support for the Sweden Democrats in areas relatively unaffected by immigration. In fact, municipalities that lost population saw the radical right score big gains.
Two key forces explain these dynamics. First, people who move to urban areas are more likely to lean left, leaving a greater proportion of conservatives behind. Second, the political leanings of voters in depopulating regions shifted from center-left to populist right. As communities lose working-age populations, they experience declines in public services, leading to a sense of status loss among those who stay. Our interviews with Social Democratic Party leaders revealed a “collective depression” in these areas.
Disillusionment with established parties provides fertile ground for radical right parties. While centrist politicians may adopt anti-immigrant stances in response, this strategy risks alienating their base and proving ineffective in the long run. The Sweden Democrats’ success is partly a protest against the political establishment. Without clear solutions to local economic and quality-of-life declines, radical right parties may face voter discontent once in office.
Ironically, the forces increasing the appeal of anti-immigrant ideologies—falling birth rates, labor shortages, and a lack of new businesses and services—are most feasibly addressed by increasing immigration. By tightening borders, centrist parties may condemn industrialized nations to a political doom loop. Instead, they should focus on addressing population decline and restoring public services in peripheral areas.
There are examples of this approach. Swedish governments have expanded support for local services in vulnerable areas. In 2021, Spain announced an $11.9 billion plan to address rural connectivity and smart cities. The European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development is investing over $100 billion to support rural areas from 2021-2027.
As Europe and the U.S. prepare for crucial elections, understanding the interplay of demographic shifts and political dynamics is critical. Emigration, often overshadowed by immigration rhetoric, is a key factor shaping the rise of the radical right.
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