The euro may open higher after Marine Le Pen conceded victory to centrist Emmanuel Macron in France’s Presidential elections.
Macron is set to beat the anti-euro candidate Le Pen by about 65 percent to 35 percent, according to the estimates of four separate pollsters — a bigger lead than predicted by surveys before the election — and one which removes the risk of France being led out of the currency bloc. Macron’s victory in the first round sparked a rally in the nation’s assets, with the euro gaining as much as 2 percent in its immediate aftermath.
With polls consistently giving a Macron lead of about 20 points, markets had largely priced in a victory for the centrist, meaning the scope for a relief rally may be more limited this time. Still, Le Pen’s defeat removes a cloud that has been hanging over the shared currency for most of 2017, and will strengthen its longer-term outlook, according to analysts.
“The euro is likely to gap higher by less than a cent as traders in New Zealand run stop losses,” Sebastien Galy, a macro strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in New York, said in emailed comments. “In the weeks to come, inflows into euro zone equities should give the euro some support, but so will other factors.”
The shared currency closed at $1.0998 on Friday, up 2.5 percent since the first round of voting on April 23.
Bloomberg
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