Europe’s borrowers brace for death of easy money as 2019 looms

Skyscrapers stand illuminated at night beside the River Main in the financial district of Frankfurt, Germany

Bankers and borrowers are bracing themselves for a difficult year selling eurobonds now that the days of easy money are coming to an end.

January’s often the busiest month of the year for new bond sales but as credit markets lose their biggest backer and political threats loom – Brexit, Italian fiscal angst and trade woes – companies must wise up to 2019’s primary-market challenges. In vogue: opportunism, front-loaded issuance and higher borrowing costs.

“The year as a whole will be window driven, but many will try to access the market in January,” said Duane Elgey, a debt syndicate director at Societe Generale SA. “Once it is accepted that spreads are not returning to early 2018 levels there will be a number of deals coming back to market.”

That’s a picture similar to the last weeks of 2018 as financial conditions have worsened and borrowing costs increased as credit investors react to rising U.S. rates and the end of the European Central Bank’s stimulus program.

“What we have experienced for the first time in many years is if it’s a bad market, it means there is execution risk, people are acutely aware of that and want to avoid that type of market,” said Frazer Ross, Deutsche Bank AG’s head of EMEA investment-grade credit bond syndicate. January could be “very hit and miss” and a lack of jumbo merger and acquisition activity could also stymie sales, he said.

January issuers could be the first in more than two years to miss out on the ECB’s Corporate Sector Purchase Programme, as the central bank will end 2.6 trillion euros of quantitative easing at year-end. That tally included buying nearly 180 billion euros of corporate bonds in primary and secondary markets.

The central bank is set to reinvest asset proceeds as they mature, although it’s not yet clear what the mix will be between new bonds and secondary market purchases. Bonds maturing next month include securities from BMW Finance NV, BASF SE and Orange SA, data compiled by Bloomberg show. BMW has often been one of the first issuers in the market each January.

Getting in early may help issuers avoid volatility around looming risks, such as the U.K.’s March 29 exit from the European Union. This list of geopolitical dangers could also easily scupper even modest expectations for primary sales next year.

“The biggest concern is a lack of resolution,” said Mariano Goldfischer, global head of syndicate at Credit Agricole CIB. “You can analyze company fundamentals but the uncertainty of the political landscape could derail everything.”

With so many uncertainties, there’s no consensus on how many corporate bonds will be sold in Europe next year. Barclays Plc and JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts expect issuance to rise on this year, while UniCredit SpA’s market watchers see volumes shrinking. BNP Paribas SA and Morgan Stanley predict broadly unchanged volumes on this year. MDT/Bloomberg