Fitch raises the bar and forecasts MOP231b GGR for next year

Fitch Ratings has forecast Macau’s gaming industry to reach some MOP231 billion in revenue, according to the American credit rating agency’s Global Gaming Outlook 2024 report.

In the report, the agency said it expects local gaming revenue to recover in 2024 to 79% of the level seen back in 2019 (pre-pandemic).

At that time, casino revenues made, according to figures from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ), an accumulated MOP292.455 billion.

In the same report, Fitch also notes that the local gaming industry will continue to grow at a good rate in 2024 despite growing concerns around China’s general economic situation, which can greatly affect Macau’s gaming performance.

The large majority of the gamblers in Macau come from mainland China and the flow of these visitors into Macau casinos is controlled using visas. This is a significant mechanism not at the disposal of other jurisdictions.

Although this is the highest projection so far of industry performance next year, it is not that far off other forecasts, including one from the local government who expect the industry to account for some MOP216 billion in earnings in 2024.

Approximately one month ago, the director of the Institute for the Study of Commercial Gaming and a gaming sector scholar at the University of Macau, Davis Fong also projected the performance of the industry, noting that it could reach as much as MOP220 billion in revenues.

Fong is said to have based his analysis on the flow of visitors this year and the expected continued focus on attracting visitors from the Southeast Asian market. He also based this projection on an expected increase of international tourists from other areas such as Europe and the Middle East.

In a slightly different context and without making projections for next year, Ben Lee, managing partner at IGamiX said in September that the local gaming market is nearing its limit, adding that it “will be difficult to improve gaming revenues much further in 2024 without [increasing] the VIP segment.”