According to HSBC’s preliminary estimates for December, Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) could reach MOP23.5 billion, rounding out the year for a take of about MOP286.5 billion.
The forecast is derived from information provided by HSBC’s gaming industry sources, indicating that the first 17 days of December yielded MOP13.1 billion in gross gaming revenue.
As for operators, Sands China and Melco Crown seemed to gain market share from competitors Galaxy Entertainment, Wynn Macau and MGM China, according to HSBC.
The previous week registered an average daily run rate (ADR) of MOP693 million, significantly down from the MOP825 million per day in the week before, but up from MOP600 million per day for the same period last year. Aggregated and extrapolated, that could account for MOP23.5 billion by month-end.
HSBC expects the month to finish slightly higher, in the range of MOP23.7 to MOP23.9 billion, implying an ADR of MOP760 million to MOP770 million for the rest of the month.
MOP23.5 billion in GGR for December would mark an 18.6 percent increase over the MOP19.81 billion recorded in the same month last year and about 2 percent over November 2017.
That would bring gross gaming revenue for the whole year to a total of about MOP286.5 billion, up 28 percent from the MOP223.2 billion in 2016, and the highest annual take since the recession began in 2014.
Year-end GGR would still remain far below pre-recession levels. In 2013 and 2014, total take for the years amounted to MOP360.75 billion and MOP351.52 billion respectively, some 22 to 26 percent higher.
However, some analysts are still exercising caution on Macau’s gaming industry.
Wolfe Research analyst, Jared Shojian, said some of the best leading indicators for Macau GGR may be strained in the early months of 2018. GGR in February 2018, during which the busy Chinese New Year holidays will fall, may prove to be key in confirming or rebutting analysts’ caution. DB
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