GDP declines 1.3% in Q1 despite increase in visitor arrivals

The Macau Statistics and Census Bureau (DSEC) has reported a 1.3% year-on-year decrease in gross domestic product (GDP) attributed to changes in tourist consumption patterns, with preliminary figures for the first quarter of 2025 reaching MOP99.7 billion.

The overall economic scale is currently at 85.2% of what it was during the same period in 2019.

Starting with the first quarter of this year, the DSEC began publishing preliminary figures for local GDP about 30 days after each quarter’s end. Revised detailed results will be released later, with the updated figures for the first quarter of 2025 scheduled for next Friday, May 16.

According to the bureau’s statistics, after a rapid recovery in 2023 from Covid-19, Macau’s economy gradually returned to normal growth in 2024. Year-on-year real growth slowed from 23.0% in the first quarter to 3.4% in the fourth quarter.

However, entering 2025, the preliminary figure for the first quarter’s GDP stood at MOP99.78 billion, representing a year-on-year real decrease of 1.3%. The overall economic scale was equivalent to 85.2% of the same period in 2019.

The bureau attributed this decline to factors such as a higher base figure from the same period last year and changes in tourist consumption patterns.

This is evident from the overall increase in visitor arrivals in Macau. The bureau stated that “analyzed by major components, although the number of inbound visitors in the first quarter increased by 11.1% year-on-year, changes in visitor spending patterns led to a decline in other tourism service exports. This resulted in an overall year-on-year decline of 3.8% in total service exports.”

The bureau acknowledged that the development of Macau’s tourism industry has been somewhat affected by the decline in visitor spending. It noted that the international landscape is marked by complex and intertwined challenges, including insufficient momentum in global economic growth, increased uncertainties in US-China relations, and rapid changes in visitors’ consumption patterns, concepts, and tiers. These factors all influence visitors’ willingness to spend in Macau.

The authorities emphasized that domestic demand in Macau remained “relatively stable”, with total fixed capital formation increasing by 7.8%. Additionally, government final consumption expenditure rose by 1.0%, while private consumption expenditure increased by 0.6%.

In this regard, although Macau’s economic recovery experienced fluctuations in the first quarter of this year, the DSEC emphasized that, in the absence of significant changes in the internal and external environment, “Macau’s economy will not experience a cyclical downturn”.

Overall, the economy is expected to maintain its recovery momentum, supported by fiscal and financial stability and a positive outlook for development.