The city’s Prosperity Index is estimated to increase by almost a whole point this month, the Macau Economic Association (MEA) announced in a statement.
The index for last month was 1.9. The association’s estimate for this month is 2.8, which is a significant increase of 0.9 points. Although the index is still at unsatisfactory levels, if circumstances remain unchanged it will likely continue to increase.
In fact, the association predicts the indices for this and the coming two months will range between 2.8 and 3.4 points. It also predicts the index to stabilize during the second or the third quarter.
The basis of this bold prediction is that Beijing has changed its approach to Covid-19 and now considers it a disease of less concern. With most disease control measures lifted alongside resumption of interactions between Macau and mainland China and Hong Kong, visitor arrivals in Macau boomed immediately. This is the reason the index has improved, the association highlighted.
The association expects the economy will further improve, with more tourists expected to visit Macau. The local government has initiated targeted promotions on tourism and, as Lunar New Year is just around the corner, more mainland and Hong Kong tourists are expected to visit.
Additionally, the confirmation of casino licenses and announcements of casino operators’ future development plans will help draw a wider range of tourists to Macau, as these plans will include mostly non-gambling elements.
The association boldly claimed that despite fluctuating external conditions, Macau’s economic revivals “have not been obstructed.” It recapped the IMF’s and the World Bank’s pessimistic outlook on the world’s economy in the coming two years.
Externally, the drop of global demand in commodities has struck China’s export figures hard. Internally, consumer confidence in mainland China has not yet recovered from three years of Covid-19 measures.
Nonetheless, mainland residents were recorded to be satisfied with spending on travelling. The travelling figures during the New Year holidays have recovered to 43% of the year-over-year levels from 2019. The association hinted that with its main trade focused on tourism, Macau will be reinvigorated as tourism resumes.
Looking back, the city had 2.0 and 1.9 for the index for the past two months, mostly caused by business suspensions due to the mass Covid-19 outbreak in December. AL
