Hold me back or I’ll invade! – Putin’s Ukraine gambit
Jorge Costa Oliveira
According to the US government, the Russian armies’ invasion of Ukraine is imminent… for several days now. Foreigners are pressured to leave Ukraine and American special troops are being transferred to bolster NATO armies on European territory. The Russian government continues to amass military forces near Ukraine but Russian TV channels not only do not highlight the tension on Ukrainian borders but also there is no preparation of Russian public opinion for an imminent war. The Government of Ukraine as well as Ukrainian citizens seem calm. How to explain this situation?
One of the reasons invoked by the Russian side is the violation of commitments regarding NATO’s non-expansion to the east (“not one inch eastward”) which were supposedly given in 1990 to leaders of the Soviet Union (during the negotiations on the German reunification process) and whose existence the American and European governments deny (most likely such a compromise was not written down but was the spirit underlying the agreements). It seems clear that eastern European states that have become NATO members will not leave the Alliance and NATO soldiers will not be removed from their territories. Thus, the useful effect of this Russian argument is reduced to preventing Ukraine’s membership of NATO, which may turn out to be one of Putin’s main legacies. In 2014, he achieved the “feat” of forging a strong Ukrainian anti-Russian nationalist unity after the annexation of Crimea and a war in the Donbass. Anyone who has gone to Ukraine after 2014 knows well that anti-Russian sentiment is strong; Ukraine will no longer return to the Russian area of influence. The Kremlin leaders know that too.
Russia’s economy shows a total GDP slightly higher than Spain’s and a GDP per capita (in 2020) of $11,786 (between Turkey and Argentina), with a production structure typical of a developing country based on the export of natural resources. Russia is only strong in military power and it is this card that the Russian leader has now played with the deployment of several armies on Ukraine’s borders. This move aims to: (i) force the future neutrality of Ukraine; (ii) pressure the Ukrainian government to implement the 2015 Minsk agreements; (iii) if the Ukrainian government does not grant a high degree of autonomy to the Donbass, create the conditions for its separation from Ukraine and incorporation into Russia; (iv) remind us that Russia is a relevant military power; (v) show that European stability, in particular in economic and energy aspects, depends on Russia; (vi) test the cohesion of NATO and EDA members; (vii) raise oil and natural gas prices, the main products that Russia exports.
But in this gambit it is important that Russian leaders realize when to stop, before incidents caused by extremists cause enormous international economic and financial instability. This would have harmful effects on the credibility of Russia, trigger unprecedented financial sanctions and greatly displease friendly countries such as India and China…
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